Welcome to the Sunday Numbers. From now until election day, every Sunday I will give the running electoral college numbers as they stand if the election were held today. The probabilities given again assume the "if the election were held today" proviso. I get my numbers from Pollster.com. My confidence of victory method for the probabilities is explained here.
My numbers may be slightly different from other numbers being tossed around the Internets because of the Confidence of Victory method I employ, which only considers a race a 50-50 tossup if the polling data says it's a flat footed tie. Also, the Confidence of Victory method is only employed if the poll has more than 85% of the respondents preferring either Obama or McCain. Large amounts of undecided make it impossible to make a prediction using this method.
Solid lead means a state where the candidate has a 90% chance of winning or better. Leaning means the odds are between 50% and 90% for that candidate.
If the election were held today, Barack Obama would be the 44th President of the United States. The expected value of the electoral college is 303 to 235.
States strong for Obama: CA, CT, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NJ, NY, OR, VT, WA, MI, WI, PA
States leaning Obama: NM, VA, NH, OH
States strong for McCain: AZ, FL, GA, TX, AK, AL, AR, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, NE, SC, TN, UT, WY
States leaning McCain: IN, NV, NC
Tossup state: MT
Undecided states with Obama tendencies: DC*, RI, CO, ND
Undecided states with McCain tendencies: SD, WV, ID, OK
*I actually haven't been able to find a presidential poll for Washington D.C. yet. If I don't find one by next week, I think I'll go way out on a limb and declare a 99% chance for Obama to win D.C.
Next update next Sunday.