Welcome to week two of the Sunday numbers. This was a big week for McCain-Palin, as the ticket pulled slightly ahead of Obama in the electoral college. Depending on polls in New Mexico and New Hampshire, if the election were held today, the electoral college would either split 269-269 or 270-268 for McCain. In case of a tie, the election would go to the new House of Representatives state by state, so no one can say for sure, but little red states get an equal vote with gigantic blue states. Ick.
The expected value, which factors in probabilities of states, favors McCain, 275 to 263.
States strong for Obama: CA, CT, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NY, OR, VT, WI
States leaning Obama: CO, MI, NJ, NM, PA, WA
States strong for McCain: AK, AL, AR, AZ, FL, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY
States leaning McCain: IN, NC, NV, OH, VA
Undecided states with Obama tendencies: DC*, RI
Undecided states with McCain tendencies: SD, WV
*I changed my mind about DC. I'll wait for someone to take a poll. While I fully expect it's three votes for Obama, I'll wait until there's real data, like I was a mathematician or something.
Next update next Sunday.
21 May 2013
6 hours ago