This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Sunday, September 14, 2008

Sunday numbers, Volume 2: Sept. 14, 2008

Welcome to week two of the Sunday numbers. This was a big week for McCain-Palin, as the ticket pulled slightly ahead of Obama in the electoral college. Depending on polls in New Mexico and New Hampshire, if the election were held today, the electoral college would either split 269-269 or 270-268 for McCain. In case of a tie, the election would go to the new House of Representatives state by state, so no one can say for sure, but little red states get an equal vote with gigantic blue states. Ick.

The expected value, which factors in probabilities of states, favors McCain, 275 to 263.


States strong for Obama: CA, CT, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, MN, NY, OR, VT, WI

States leaning Obama: CO, MI, NJ, NM, PA, WA

States strong for McCain: AK, AL, AR, AZ, FL, GA, ID, KS, KY, LA, MO, MS, MT, ND, NE, NH, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY

States leaning McCain: IN, NC, NV, OH, VA

Undecided states with Obama tendencies: DC*, RI

Undecided states with McCain tendencies: SD, WV

*I changed my mind about DC. I'll wait for someone to take a poll. While I fully expect it's three votes for Obama, I'll wait until there's real data, like I was a mathematician or something.

Next update next Sunday.

9 comments:

BobManDo said...

Matty, I appreciate your looking dispasionately at the numbers and reporting them as you see 'em....

But DAMN!... I'm getting emotional, those numbers I bummin' me out...

AND Yet, there's time for them to turn around. Lets see if they turn around next week 21st.

Matty Boy said...

It's early, Bob. If you really feel bad about it and you have free time or spare money, see how the Obama campaign can use it. That's what I'm doing. I'm trying to see if I can afford the time and money to work in Nevada for a weekend, which is right now a battleground state.

DCup said...

There are so many newly registered democrats that the current numbers could be out of whack. Here's hoping!

I'm glad you're tracking it this way with the info you have.

Keep up the good work!

Mauigirl said...

As Plain's record becomes better known perhaps these pro-McCain numbers will shift. We can only hope. I can't believe NJ is only "leaning" to Obama. A couple of weeks ago Obama led by large double digits.

namastenancy said...

Great work (as so many have said). I don't have the time to volunteer but I'm giving money to some of the Democratic organizations that I trust. The neck in neck tie is simply amazing to me. You'd think that after 8 years of Bush-created havoc that people would be ready for a real change. What the 50/50 says about our country is sobering; we really are polarized. OR - the pollsters are not asking the right questions of the right people.

Distributorcap said...

RI is one of the most democratic states in the country (after DC and Mass) -- i would take off the lean category

i still think Montana is in play

ken said...

Ermmmm.... Keep in mind that the House votes by states, one vote per state. I think all those one-representative red states still outnumber the bigger, bluer ones.

No, I don't like it either.

Matty Boy said...

Thanks for the correction, Ken. I change the post accordingly. According to 270towin.com, it's the new Congress that decides state by state.

dguzman said...

Thanks for the total bummer post, Matty....