Sunday, September 21, 2008

Sunday numbers, Volume 3: Sept. 21, 2008

First, a quick review of my methods.

Source: Pollster.com, a clearinghouse for polling data.
Number of states (and D.C.) with new polls this week: 49 of 51

What is the system for taking in new polling data?
0 new polls in a week: numbers stay unchanged
1-2 new polls in a week: Take the newest polling numbers. If tied for newest, take the one with the largest number surveyed. If that's a tie, flip a coin. (No coins have yet been flipped.)
3 or more new polls in a week: Take the median poll of the three most recent. This tends to downplay outlying data.

This week's numbers are good news for Barack Obama, but the election is still close. As of Sunday morning, the median polls in Pennsylvania and Florida both show a flat-footed tie, so 48 electors are up for grabs. If McCain wins both those states and doesn't lose any of his other states, he would be president. Obama only needs to win one, or gain the lead in a state leaning towards McCain without losing any states currently leaning his way, and Obama would be president.

States strong for McCain: MO, NH, SC, LA, GA, TX, AK, AL, AR, AZ, ID, KS, KY, MS, ND, NE, OK, TN, UT, WY
States leaning McCain: NC, MT, VA, NV, IN, SD, WV
Flat footed ties: FL, PA
States leaning Obama: MI, MN, WI, CO, OH
States strong for Obama: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, ME, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, NM, WA

When the election is about serious issues instead of lipstick and pigs, this usually helps the party who can say "Don't look at us! Those guys got us into this mess!" I'm not happy about the bailouts, and I wish Obama would say "Enough!" and vow to get us out of the insurance business and the stupid game of Hot Potato with bad debt.

Who can say what the new day will bring, as we leave Summer behind and head into Fall?

Stay tuned, gentle readers. Same time next week. Same blog.



2 comments:

DCup said...

Checking in for some numbery info. Thanks!

Karlacita! said...

Thanks for posting your sperimental methods - iz useful!

I think I'm going to NV to help the campaign - lookit me all political 'n shit!