You know when you see the grainy rendering of the abacus, it must be time for The Sunday Numbers! This week, Pollster.com had updated information from 31 states, and both the national and state trends favored Barack Obama. There has been no new state polling reported since after the debate, but all the national polls have Obama up by 5 to 6 percentage points. Of course, The Sunday Numbers are about the electoral college count as the polls have it standing, so let's take a look at those, shall we?
States strong for Obama: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, PA, NM, WA, ME, WI
States leaning for Obama: CO, MI, MN, NH
Total electors for Obama if the election were held today: 273
States strong for McCain: LA, TX, AK, AL, AR, AZ, GA, ID, KS, KY, MS, ND, NE, OK, SC, TN, UT, WY, SD
States leaning for McCain: NV, VA, MO, MT, FL, IN, WV
Total electors for McCain if the election were held today: 230
States currently too close to call: NC, OH
McCain definitely has his work cut out for him. A clear sign of his troubles is that Indiana is a state in play as my system calls it, while Pennsylvania currently is not. The odds for Obama winning Pennsylvania are well over 90% using the Confidence of Victory method. We must recall that all these predictors are based on the statement "if the election were held today", and we are still more than a month away from Election Day.
I'm also including this handy chart with each update from now on. We see the Palin bounce in week two, but does appear to be a bounce, going up and down. I've read some commenters on other websites explain why all the economic woes can be laid at the feet of the Democrats, but their arguments aren't swaying a lot of undecided people.
As Keith Olbermann says on that MSNBC ad, anyone who says they know what will happen next is wrong, but if these trends continue and Obama is still over 270 in mid October, Matty Boy, Investment Advisor to the Stars*, will probably put a few bucks on Obama to win the presidency over on the intrade.com website.
*Those of you new to the pronouncements of Matty Boy, Investment Advisor to the Stars should be aware that he is:
c) not actually giving financial advice to anyone, let alone any stars.