Sunday, September 28, 2008

Sunday numbers, Volume 4: Sept. 28, 2008

You know when you see the grainy rendering of the abacus, it must be time for The Sunday Numbers! This week, Pollster.com had updated information from 31 states, and both the national and state trends favored Barack Obama. There has been no new state polling reported since after the debate, but all the national polls have Obama up by 5 to 6 percentage points. Of course, The Sunday Numbers are about the electoral college count as the polls have it standing, so let's take a look at those, shall we?



States strong for Obama: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IA, IL, MA, MD, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, PA, NM, WA, ME, WI
233 electors
States leaning for Obama: CO, MI, MN, NH
40 electors
Total electors for Obama if the election were held today: 273

States strong for McCain: LA, TX, AK, AL, AR, AZ, GA, ID, KS, KY, MS, ND, NE, OK, SC, TN, UT, WY, SD
155 electors
States leaning for McCain: NV, VA, MO, MT, FL, IN, WV
75 electors
Total electors for McCain if the election were held today: 230

States currently too close to call: NC, OH
35 electors

McCain definitely has his work cut out for him. A clear sign of his troubles is that Indiana is a state in play as my system calls it, while Pennsylvania currently is not. The odds for Obama winning Pennsylvania are well over 90% using the Confidence of Victory method. We must recall that all these predictors are based on the statement "if the election were held today", and we are still more than a month away from Election Day.


I'm also including this handy chart with each update from now on. We see the Palin bounce in week two, but does appear to be a bounce, going up and down. I've read some commenters on other websites explain why all the economic woes can be laid at the feet of the Democrats, but their arguments aren't swaying a lot of undecided people.

As Keith Olbermann says on that MSNBC ad, anyone who says they know what will happen next is wrong, but if these trends continue and Obama is still over 270 in mid October, Matty Boy, Investment Advisor to the Stars*, will probably put a few bucks on Obama to win the presidency over on the intrade.com website.

*Those of you new to the pronouncements of Matty Boy, Investment Advisor to the Stars should be aware that he is:

a) broke
b) crazy
c) not actually giving financial advice to anyone, let alone any stars.

5 comments:

BobManDo said...

Ok, It's looking good... and still there is angst. I am a fan of the new age theory (LOA)... "you get more of what you are focusing on whether you want it or not." So I am focusing on Obama!:

Say it out loud:

PRESIDENT OBAMA Aaaaaah!!!

"Plop, Plop, Fizz, Fizz, Obama!, What a relief he is!" *

* (Based on the old Alka Seltzer jingle)

BTW, Matty Boy, have you looked at the methods that http://www.fivethirtyeight.com
is using? Obama ahead 317.8 to 220.2.

-BobManDo

sfmike said...

What do you mean you don't know any stars? I'm a Star, damn it, and you know me.

Lulu Maude said...

Thanks. Stuff I need to see.

This campaign is turning us into wrecks. A general news blackout in our house, followed by surreptitious peeks at debate snippets, excerpts of La Sarah, etc.

I'll just come here from now on.

Matty Boy said...

Bob: I have looked at 538.com; his method counts some polls more strongly than others. Mine counts them all as equally valid, and considers the most recent (or three most recent if they are all within a week of each other) to be the ones to be used. My numbers currently have the split at 296 to 242 for Obama. I also have a probability of victory program I run, and I blush to mention that currently Obama is an 8-1 favorite, which is why I want to put a few bucks on him.

Mike: You are absolutely right, I need to re-write that gag.

Lulu: Princess Sparkle Pony keeps track of Condoleezza's hairdo so you don't have to. Let me perform the same service when it comes to the election horse race.

DCup said...

I like these numbers, but I still can't wait for Nov. to get here so we'll just know already!