Another week goes by, and the numbers keep changing. None of the changes are good John Sidney McCain and Sarah Forecheck Palin. They keep talking about William Ayers when the markets are having the worst week ever. Only crazy people are listening to them, and while the stupid vote is big enough to win an election, the crazy vote is not.
23 days from now, we will be electing a new president. If the election were held today, the ticket of Barack Hussein Obama and Joseph Creditlimit Biden would have 99 more electors than they need to become the next president and vice president of the United States.
Here is how the state races are looking as of the most recent polls. The order goes from the most solidly Obama, Washington, DC, to the most solidly McCain, Oklahoma.
Strong for Obama (over 90% confidence of victory): DC, HI, VT, DE, MD, RI, NY, MA, IL, CT, CA, PA, IA, OR, MI, WA, WI, VA, NH, WV, NJ, MN, CO, FL
Leaning for Obama (between 51% and 89% confidence of victory):NM, ME, NV, OH, MO, NC
Total electors for Obama if the election were held today: 369
Strong for McCain (0ver 90% confidence of victory): MT, IN, LA, MS, GA, KY, ND, AR, KS, AK, SD, AZ, TN, NE, TX, SC, AL, ID, UT, WY, OK
Total electors for McCain if the election were held today: 169
There were new polls in 22 states this week. McCain made gains to raise his solid total from 158 to 169, but everything else that was leaning McCain last week now leans Obama. Obama's solid numbers from these polls include Florida, and like any adult, I'm having a hard time thinking Florida is solidly anything, except solidly corrupt. But even without Florida, the solidly Obama states have 282 electors, 12 more than necessary for Barack to win, and he's very likely to carry some of the states that are leaning his way now.
I keep having to stretch this graph, as Obama's totals keep going higher than I thought they would. The only way for McCain to go lower as far as I can tell is if Indiana or Montana goes Democratic. The rest of the states look like solid locks.
Here are some warnings from Matty Boy the gambler not to celebrate early.
The New York Yankees were ahead three games to none in a series in 2004, only needing to win one more game against the Boston Red Sox. The Yanks were ahead in the ninth inning of the fourth game with Mariano Rivera, A.K.A. The Hammer of God, pitching. The Red Sox scored a run and won in extra innings. The Red Sox won the next three games as well, then went on to be World Series champs.
Appalachian State beat Michigan last year in college football.
The heavily favored New England Patriots lost the Super Bowl earlier this year.
So you understand about not celebrating early? Good.
Two weeks ago, McCain was an 8-1 underdog. Last week, it was 158-1 against. As the numbers stand today, McCain is more than a 3,000-1 longshot.
If a horse was that much of a longshot at the track, it probably wouldn't have four legs.
To put these numbers in terms McCain can understand. Senator, go to a casino, step up to the craps table, take the dice and from your first roll, win on the pass line eleven straight times.
Got that in your head, senator? Winning this election looks to be a little harder than that.