Sunday, October 19, 2008
Sunday numbers, Volume 7: Oct. 19, 2008
We are sixteen days away from knowing for sure, and I know the uncertainty is troublesome. This week, pollster.com had new polls in a remarkable 35 states, and there were three major changes. The much polled battleground state of Ohio went from leaning Obama to toss-up, and in the Confidence of Victory system it's very hard to be a toss-up. A couple of states that had one poll each switched sides, with McCain regaining West Virginia and Obama picking up North Dakota. Both changes were very dramatic, and they both could be outliers. Here's where the numbers stand as of October 19.
Barack Obama stills holds a commanding lead of 347 to 171, with 20 electors in Ohio contingent on a race too close to give an edge either way.
Strong for Obama (90% confidence of victory or higher): DC, HI, VT, MA, CA, MI, MD, NY, RI, ME, CT, IL, OR, WA, NJ, IA, DE, PA, VA, NH, WI, NM, MO, MN
Leaning Obama (between 51% and 89% confidence of victory): CO, FL, NV, ND, NC
Total electors for Obama if the election were held today: 347 electors
Toss-up states: OH
Strong for McCain (90% confidence of victory or higher): UT, ID, OK, AL, WY, AK, NE, TN, AZ, SD, SC, TX, AR, KS, WV, MS, KY, GA, LA, MT
Leaning McCain (between 51% and 89% confidence of victory): IN
Total electors for McCain if the election were held today: 171 electors
McCain gained 2 and Obama lost 22 from last week. That's the good news for McCain.
Here's the bad news for McCain. Time is running out. If Obama can hold onto the states where the numbers give him a 90% or more Confidence of Victory margin, he has 288 electors and he becomes president. Even more remarkably, though the three major moving states, Ohio, West Virginia and North Dakota, split 2-1 for McCain, states where the numbers changed marginally favored Obama this week, 21-6. Though Obama is off his high water mark from last week, his probability of victory numbers rose from a 3,000 to 1 favorite last week to a 7,600 to 1 favorite this week.
Here's where I say don't celebrate early.
Okay, I said it.
Honestly, the arguments that this is a close election are getting weaker and weaker.
If you go to Bill O'Reilly's FoxNoise site, he says it's 189-183 McCain with 166 toss-up, but O'Reilly is a joke. Click on the Real Clear Politics or Politico buttons to see how much of a joke.
Chris Matthews, a.k.a. Tweety Bird, was on MSNBC telling us how racist western Pennsylvania is and that Pennsylvania could see the Bradley effect. All the polls for more than three weeks in Pennsylvania have shown more than a double digit lead for Obama.
After Obama got 100,000 in St. Louis yesterday afternoon, a crowd of 75,000 showed up to greet him in Kansas City last night.
But the numbers I find most impressive are over at Intrade.com, where the market is currently betting 84% to 16% that Obama will win, compared to 60% to 40% at the beginning of the month. Intrade admits that even these impressive numbers are being kept artificially low by the actions of one "institutional investor" (read: idiot) with more dollars than sense who keeps on losing money buying up McCain to win contracts.
Let's see. Rock F*#king Stupid guy with too much money that he is willing to piss down a hole due to a pathetic emotional investment in the extreme longshot chance of McCain winning. Could it be our buddy no_slappz? (Fun fact: no_slappz's main blog has had 1,000 visitors in 12 months. In the last 30 days, any four days in a row here at Lotsa 'Splainin' add up to 1,000 visitors, and sometimes I get that many in three days. And my PageRank is a 4/10, very middle of the pack. My football blog is as popular as his based on weekly visitors, and honestly, nobody's showing up over there.)
More numbers next week. While I don't want people to celebrate early, I also don't want people to lose sleep.