Sunday, October 19, 2008

Sunday numbers, Volume 7: Oct. 19, 2008

We are sixteen days away from knowing for sure, and I know the uncertainty is troublesome. This week, had new polls in a remarkable 35 states, and there were three major changes. The much polled battleground state of Ohio went from leaning Obama to toss-up, and in the Confidence of Victory system it's very hard to be a toss-up. A couple of states that had one poll each switched sides, with McCain regaining West Virginia and Obama picking up North Dakota. Both changes were very dramatic, and they both could be outliers. Here's where the numbers stand as of October 19.

Barack Obama stills holds a commanding lead of 347 to 171, with 20 electors in Ohio contingent on a race too close to give an edge either way.

Strong for Obama (90% confidence of victory or higher): DC, HI, VT, MA, CA, MI, MD, NY, RI, ME, CT, IL, OR, WA, NJ, IA, DE, PA, VA, NH, WI, NM, MO, MN
288 electors
Leaning Obama (between 51% and 89% confidence of victory): CO, FL, NV, ND, NC
59 electors
Total electors for Obama if the election were held today: 347 electors

Toss-up states: OH
20 electors

Strong for McCain (90% confidence of victory or higher): UT, ID, OK, AL, WY, AK, NE, TN, AZ, SD, SC, TX, AR, KS, WV, MS, KY, GA, LA, MT
Leaning McCain (between 51% and 89% confidence of victory): IN
11 electors
Total electors for McCain if the election were held today: 171 electors

McCain gained 2 and Obama lost 22 from last week. That's the good news for McCain.

Here's the bad news for McCain. Time is running out. If Obama can hold onto the states where the numbers give him a 90% or more Confidence of Victory margin, he has 288 electors and he becomes president. Even more remarkably, though the three major moving states, Ohio, West Virginia and North Dakota, split 2-1 for McCain, states where the numbers changed marginally favored Obama this week, 21-6. Though Obama is off his high water mark from last week, his probability of victory numbers rose from a 3,000 to 1 favorite last week to a 7,600 to 1 favorite this week.

Here's where I say don't celebrate early.

Okay, I said it.

Honestly, the arguments that this is a close election are getting weaker and weaker.

If you go to Bill O'Reilly's FoxNoise site, he says it's 189-183 McCain with 166 toss-up, but O'Reilly is a joke. Click on the Real Clear Politics or Politico buttons to see how much of a joke.

Chris Matthews, a.k.a. Tweety Bird, was on MSNBC telling us how racist western Pennsylvania is and that Pennsylvania could see the Bradley effect. All the polls for more than three weeks in Pennsylvania have shown more than a double digit lead for Obama.

After Obama got 100,000 in St. Louis yesterday afternoon, a crowd of 75,000 showed up to greet him in Kansas City last night.

But the numbers I find most impressive are over at, where the market is currently betting 84% to 16% that Obama will win, compared to 60% to 40% at the beginning of the month. Intrade admits that even these impressive numbers are being kept artificially low by the actions of one "institutional investor" (read: idiot) with more dollars than sense who keeps on losing money buying up McCain to win contracts.

Let's see. Rock F*#king Stupid guy with too much money that he is willing to piss down a hole due to a pathetic emotional investment in the extreme longshot chance of McCain winning. Could it be our buddy no_slappz? (Fun fact: no_slappz's main blog has had 1,000 visitors in 12 months. In the last 30 days, any four days in a row here at Lotsa 'Splainin' add up to 1,000 visitors, and sometimes I get that many in three days. And my PageRank is a 4/10, very middle of the pack. My football blog is as popular as his based on weekly visitors, and honestly, nobody's showing up over there.)

More numbers next week. While I don't want people to celebrate early, I also don't want people to lose sleep.


DCup said...

I'm still cautiously optimistic. And I would be a fan of your football blog if I knew thing one about football.

Matty Boy said...

Cautious optimism is a good thing. The numbers back you up, and not just the numbers I post.

As for the football blog, I apologize for sounding a passive-aggressive note in advertising. I admit our pal no_slappz does not bring out the best in me, though I have ample evidence he is just a sad loser who trolls my blog and others just because he wants someone, ANYONE, to read what he writes.

namastenancy said...

I read him and I groan and roll my eyes. I am sick and tired of the faux news and the misleading b-s. But you give him a forum that he little deserves, thereby proving that you are a better person than he is! I get a fair number of trolls on my site but as it's art related, unless you are making intelligent comments about art - or unless I know and like you - it goes into the delete file. Guess that proves that you are a better person that I am and I bow toward your better self - even if you live in Oakland where, as we know, there is no there there. "Us" San Franciscians can be so petty, can't we?

Matty Boy said...

I have the same rules about being off topic, nancy. I cover a goofy number of topics, but if someone writes something that has nothing to do with what I posted, it goes into the electron graveyard. I've killed posts of slappy before.

dguzman said...

Slappy gets the insta-delete at my bloggy, Matty. Guess I'm an asshole like that.

Anyway--you know what I love about you? Let me count the ways! Or at least one of the ways as it relates to these Sunday Numbers posts: you are so responsible with your statistics and predictions. The last line made me get a little emo for ya.

P.S.--I hope Slappy's not "Rock F*#king Stupid guy with too much money that he is willing to piss down a hole due to a pathetic emotional investment in the extreme longshot chance of McCain winning" because no one with who's that insane deserves to be that rich.