Sunday, November 2, 2008

Sunday numbers, Volume 9: Nov. 2, - UPDATED

Less than 60 hours from now, the polls will be closed in all the lower 48 states, and we will have a very good idea of who will be the next president. Until such time as we know for sure, here is my best estimate of the situation given the most recent polls listed at

Things moved a little from last week, but very little. Indiana, which was leaning Obama, is now a toss-up, two of the last three polls showing a flat-footed tie. Nevada looked like a toss-up last week, is now in the strong Obama category. McCain moved up to 174 electoral votes leaning his way, 96 less than he needs to win. Here are how the states and Washington D.C. currently line up.

Strong for Obama (90% confidence of victory or higher): DC, HI, VT, IL, MA, CA, NJ, MD, NY, MI, RI, OR, ME, IA, CT, MN, WA, DE, WI, NM, NH, CO, PA, NV
278 electors
Leaning Obama (confidence of victory between 51% and 89%): OH, VA, FL, NC
75 electors
Total for Obama if the election were held today: 353 electors

Toss-up states: IN - 11 electors

Strong for McCain (90% confidence of victory or higher): WV, MS, AR, TX, SC, SD, KY, KS, LA, TN, NE, AK, AL, ID, OK, WY, UT
132 electors
Leaning McCain (confidence of victory between 51% and 89%): ND, MO, MT, AZ, GA
42 electors
Total for McCain if the election were held today: 174 electors

It's a tough play for McCain. Even if he wins every place he currently leads AND Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina, he still needs to pull in Pennsylvania.

This is his best road to victory, but not the only one. His odds currently stand at 2,700 to 1. That's much better than last week, when it was 16,000 to 1, but the odds still stink and time is running out.

Right wing pundits, who are deeply invested in the idea that the public doesn't actually hate the Republican Party for what has happened in the last eight years, argue that if the economic crisis hadn't hit, things would be much different. They may have a point, albeit an insipid one. The crisis did hit, a lot of the blame is squarely on the shoulders of deregulation, even by the high priest of deregulation Alan Greenspan, and McCain looked bad at nearly every turn during the decisions on the bailout.

The true maverick thing to do would have been to go with public opinion and side with the rebelling House Republicans against Bush and Paulson, especially once Obama had staked out a pro-bailout position. We were warned that crisis and calamity were just around the corner if this grotesquely expensive bill didn't pass. Well, it passed, and what we've seen this last month certainly look like crisis and calamity in spite of the passage.

Instead, he put all his mavericky chips on the pick of mavericky Sarah Palin, and saw the conservative movement crumble into a million little pieces as Republicans from all parts of the party found it impossible to support the idea that she deserved the nod.

Again, to re-iterate, don't celebrate early. Go out and vote. Call your friends and family and make sure they can vote. If you have any questions about what you can do to help, click on one of links at the bottom of this post.

60 hours left. Don't stop working.

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Dr. Monkey Von Monkerstein said...

Once again you have offered us an excellent analysis.

Mauigirl said...

Great post, thanks for the analysis and the trend chart. Things seem to be pretty stabilized - it's time to vote now! I hope it all turns out as expected. I won't be sure until I see the votes!

Matty Boy said...

I made an update, as Virginia got a little tighter, but still in Obama's favor.

I don't work on Tuesday, so I'll call up Obama headquarters to see what I can do.

namastenancy said...

From your mouth (or blog) to God's ear. My motto is vote early, vote often!