Sunday, March 29, 2009

Barack-etology: Second weekend update

President Obama's bracket got busted up some this weekend, but he can still pin his hopes on North Carolina next weekend.

Sweet 16: He had the chance to win all eight games, but only correctly predicted five.

Elite 8: Because of early failed predictions, Obama could only win three out of four, but his generally conservative picks only came true once. He picked against first seeded Connecticut, who won, and with all the other first seeds, only getting a winner with North Carolina. This gives him 750 points, and puts him below the middle, at 46.83%.

If Carolina wins the in the semifinals, he will gain ground on about 60% of the field. Assume he is ahead of about 30% already and another 10% of them cannot be reached. The game he has no chance to win, Michigan State vs. Villanova, is only useful for about 10% of the remaining field one way or another. Carolina winning the whole thing could put him in the top 80% or so, But I would be surprised if he ends up in the top 90%.

Still, I'm rooting for him, even if he hasn't fired Tim Geithner yet.

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