This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation. When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Weird numbers from the weirdest party in the free world.
Once again, I look at numbers and they don't quite add up. I'm kinda good with numbers, so this sets me to thinking.
I know, always a dangerous proposition.
The website Pollster is now owned by the Huffington Post, but it's still useful anyway. (Anyone else feeling like HuffPo are the emptiest calories you can get on the Internets?) They have plenty of early polling of the Republican nomination. There's an interesting pattern.
When there are national polls of Republicans for favorite candidate for the presidency, whether by Rasmussen or Gallup or CNN, if Donald Trump's name is in the mix, he is doing very well, sometimes leading or tied for the lead, never worse than a close second. But then there are the polls of Republicans at the state level. In South Carolina, Trump is a distant third behind Huckabee and Romney. In New Hampshire, Romney leads Trump 32% to 17%. In the Iowa caucus polling, Trump is in fourth behind Newt Gingrich, and in Iowa primary, it's Huckabee with the big lead and Trump in third, slightly behind Romney. There are a couple of broken links on the page to polls in Nevada and one more to South Carolina, but they show the same thing. When asked at the state level, Trump is not a major player.
I want to make it clear I am not cherry picking these polls. That's what Trump would do and Donald Trump and I have a major difference in character. I'm a nerd and he's not. Nerds are among the most honest people in the world because we actually believe in facts. When my friends Ken or Art stop by to correct me, they are showing nerd love and I recognize the gesture. They've got it right, I had it wrong and I gladly edit the post to make the correction.
Pollster has a long list of recent polls. The polls from March don't even list Trump as a candidate. He's made most of his noise about running in just the past few weeks. And let's be clear, it's just noise. Even if he declares for president, it's still just noise. He has no ideas, he has no clever plan. He is a pathological liar. He says he's going to talk to OPEC and tell them "Look guys, the fun's over." and they are going to listen, because it's all about the messenger.
Have you ever heard a more delusional load of bullshit in your life? For any country that produces more oil than they use, the fun is nowhere near over. Nations like the U.S. that produce less oil than they use are addicts, and if you have a product that an addict craves, you are being an idiot if you charge anything less than top dollar.
I know that it is not impossible that Trump will run. I wish it was impossible for him to win, but the average American is stone stupid. Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Governor Jesse Ventura are proof enough of that. But these polls from states around the country taken over the same period as the national polls seem to indicate than when the rubber meets the road, even Republican pinheads swallowing Fox News nonsense day in and day out know that Donald Trump is a joke.