Monday, January 2, 2012

Prognostication #1 for 2012:
The Iowa caucus

Okay, Matty Boy has been crunching the numbers and is ready to predict the Iowa caucuses being held tomorrow. I will also come back on Wednesday to show how brilliantly I did or how badly I sucked.

1st place: Ron Paul 23%
2nd place: Mitt Romney 22%
3rd place: Rick Santorum 19%
4th place: Newt Gingrich 15%
5th place: Rick Perry 10%
6th place: Michele Bachmann 7%
7th place: Jon Huntsman 3%
Others: 1%

This will officially start the Santorum Surge. It will be another bubble. Gingrich's time in the sun is going to be hard to hold onto if he finishes fourth (or worse) here are gets pounded in New Hampshire, which are the likely outcomes.  I thought he peaked at the right time in December, but I did not anticipate just how strong the animus towards him would be from so many quarters and how much money they were willing to spend to neutralize him.

Overall, I think Romney is the nominee.  Some polls have shown people's second choice candidates, and Romney is doing better as a second choice than I thought he would. The one power player who still hates Romney is Rush Limbaugh, but he has been known to take 180° turns in the past. I can't predict there will be a third party candidate who can pick up 10% or more of the vote, but if there is, it favors Obama.

Of course, all that is long range crystal ball stuff.  Back on Wednesday to crow from the rooftops or to eat crow. If you want to follow me on Twitter, I'm @ConfidenceOfVic, short for Confidence of Victory, the name I gave my statistical method that can be used in races with two or three main candidates.

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