Friday, February 3, 2012

An interesting number from a meaningless race.

Public Policy Polling is a Democratic company and they work cheap, relying on robo-polls.  For all that, their track record for accuracy is good.  Late last month, they published a poll about next Tuesday's Missouri primary, a "beauty contest" that produces no delegates. Newt Gingrich's name does not appear on the ballot, so he wasn't a choice in the poll PPP conducted. In that sampling, Santorum beat Romney 45% to 34%. Ron Paul was at 13%, about what he gets in most polls in a four way race.

Eventually, Santorum or Gingrich will drop out, and right now it's much more likely to be Santorum, given the beatings he took in both South Carolina and Florida. When it gets down to Romney, NotRomney and Dr. Paul (the only one who can save us from the Daleks), Romney will be in second place for a while.  In the long run, I still think Romney wins the nomination just because Republicans will finally be resigned to the fact that Santorum or Gingrich will be crushed by Obama.
Back to PPP for a second.  They published their results for the Nevada caucuses this morning, so unless there is another poll no one has mentioned yet, I have my numbers ready for the Nevada race, which is held tomorrow. Nate Silver hasn't factored PPP in yet, so I'll wait until he does and publish our predictions together. We both have the same data and there is so little to use, I doubt we will disagree by much. 
Maine has a caucus as well, but no polls have been produced so I have no way to predict anything and I'm going to take a pass.
Playing around with numbers!  So much fun for a nerd like Matty Boy.

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