Sunday, March 4, 2012

No prediction based on a single poll.

Quick update: I didn't publish a prediction in Washington state and neither did Nate Silver. Had I used my model with only the PPP poll, I would have been about 77.1% correct, a grade of C instead of the B+ to A- grades I expect when more data is available.  The PPP poll had Sick Rantorum beating Dr. Ron Paul - the only candidate with a key to the TARDIS - handily. Instead, it was Paul barely out-polling Sen. Rick and Gingrich completely out of the running, his usual outcome.

There will be enough data for some predictions before Super Tuesday.

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