Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Prediction for March 20:
The Illinois primary

Only one primary this evening, Illinois' proportional contest for 69 delegates.  Nate Silver and I do not disagree on the basic shape of the race, but we are a few percentage points off on some of the candidates. Here are the numbers, my prediction first and Silver's in parentheses.

Romney 43.5% (45.5%)
Santorum 32.5% (31.4%)
Gingrich 14.0% (13.6%)
Paul 9.0% (9.0%)
None of the Above 1.0% (0.5%
As you can see, we differ sharply on Romney with Silver being bullish by two percentage points. The less votes we think a candidate is going to get, the less we disagree. These predictions are based on only three polls, two from the modern workhorses PPP and Rasmussen, one from the flaky We Ask America.  (More on the reliability of the different companies this week.)
I'll be back with the results tomorrow. In our first twelve contests, I'm ahead 7-5.

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