Friday, March 23, 2012

Prediction for March 24:
The Louisiana Primary UPDATE

Yet another primary this week, this time a Saturday affair in Louisiana.  As has happened nearly every time in the past, Nate Silver's prediction model and mine agree on the basic shape of the race (who is in first, second, third and fourth), but we disagree on the precise numbers. Of course, our "agreement" is not a promise, just the best guesses we have based on polls. The polls have missed important events in the past, including wins for Santorum when the polls said he'd be in third and Newt Gingrich's horrible showing last Tuesday in Illinois.
Here are our percentages for the four candidates and the None of the Above tally, which actually has a meaning in Louisiana, because native son Buddy Roemer is on the ballot. My numbers are first and Nate's second in parentheses.

Santorum 44.0% (44.0%)
Romney 29.5%  (29.6%)
Gingrich 18.0% (18.8%
Paul 6.5%(6.4%)
None of the Above 2.0%(1.2%)

Wow, Nate and I have never been closer on our predictions.  Complete agreement on Santorum, one tenth of a percent disagreement on Romney (Nate has the high side) and Paul (I have the high side).  I'm on the low side with Gingrich by 0.8% and on the high side by the same distance with None of the Above, a.k.a. Buddy Roemer+Spoiled Ballots.

I've never said this before the polls closed.  I like my chances this time.

I'll be back Saturday night or Sunday morning to report if I was right.


Karlacita! said...

I wonder if Nate is borrowing some of your calculations?

Matty Boy said...

I very much doubt it, especially since I don't make my methods public. On the New York Times website, he shows what polls he uses and he is factoring in some polls I consider to stale to be valuable.

Just because we agree doesn't mean we will be both be close.