Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Predictions on Super Tuesday:
Georgia, Ohio and Tennessee

The crystal ball is back and we have three key races where lots of polling companies gave us lots of data, much of it on this last weekend before the primaries.  There is enough data in Georgia, Ohio and Tennessee for my prediction model to go head to head with Nate Silver's in those states. The seven other races - Alaska, Oklahoma, Virginia, Vermont, Massachusetts, North Dakota and Idaho - either had no polling or too little for my tastes.

Here are the predictions in the three states, my number given first and Nate Silver's in parentheses.
Romney 35.5% (36.6%)
Santorum 34.5% (34.3%)
Gingrich 17.0% (16.6%)
Paul 12.5% (11.3%)
NOTA 0.5% (1.2%)
Silver and I do not disagree on position of the four candidates in any state. We also agree that Ohio is relatively close, but late polling makes R-Money a slim favorite over Sick Rantorum. Nate's position makes him bullish on Mitt and None of the Above, and there are large gaps in our predictions of Mitt and Ron Paul.
Santorum 35.0% (32.6%)
Romney 30.0% (31.1%)  
Gingrich 22.0% (26.5%)
Paul 10.0% (9.7%)
NOTA 3.0% (0.1%)
Another close race, but Silver's model makes it even closer than mine does. We have large disagreements on everybody but Ron Paul, so the result of this one is likely to be a landslide one way or the other in terms of prediction numbers.

Gingrich 46.5% (45.9%)
Romney 24.5% (25.5%)
Santorum 19.0% (18.7%)
Paul 8.0% (8.7%)
NOTA 2.0% (1.2%)

Again, my prediction model and Nate Silver's agree on the basic order of things and there are big gaps between the candidates, so any change to Newt > Mitt > Rick > Ron will be a big surprise.  I'm bullish on Cheerful Old Newt, Sick Rantorum and None of the Above.  The gaps in our predictions are relatively small, so this could be a close race between Nate and me, though it should be a landslide for Gingrich in the state he used to call home.

I'll be back tomorrow to report on results.  After seven matches, I lead 4-3.

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