Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Results from Alabama and Mississippi

The polls were all wrong in the Deep South, so neither Nate Silver or I did very well, turning in our worst performances since Iowa, the other huge upset win for Sick Rantorum. That said, in this contest our algorithms are competing against each other, and I pulled off two low scoring wins.  Here are the results.

Santorum 32.9% (I gain 0.6%)
Gingrich 31.3% (I gain 1.1%)
Romney 32.9% (I lose 0.8%)
Paul 4.4% (I gain 0.3%)
None of the Above 1.1% (break even)
Hubbard 85.0%, 83.8%

Santorum 34.5% (I gain 0.4%) 
Gingrich 29.3% (I gain 1%)
Romney 29.0% (I gain 1%)
Paul 5.0% (I lose 1.3%)
None of the Above 2.2% (I gain 0.3%)
Hubbard 85.6%, Silver 84.2%

Simply put, we overrated everybody in the field except Senator Rick.  We also underrated None Of The Above.

The news will be about these two victories and ignore the fact that R-Money picked up more delegates last night than the other candidates by winning big in Hawaii and American Samoa.

Delegates won on 3/13
R-Money 40
Rantorum 35
Old Cheerful 25
Dr. Ron 0
The boa constrictor continues to squeeze. Newt has said many times he won't quit, but even a guy as cheerful as he is has to be getting a little glum by now. This next week has a non-binding caucus in Missouri, a winner take all caucus in Puerto Rico and a direct election next Tuesday in Illinois.  I expect the polling companies to give a lot of data in Illinois and next to none in the other two contests. If that's the case, I'll be back to report on the prognostications a week from now.

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