Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Results from Illinois.

Illinois produces a victory for Mitt R-Money over the field and a win for Nate Silver's prediction model over mine.  He was bullish on Mitt and that made most of the difference. Here are the final numbers.

Romney 46.7% (both low, Nate gains 2.0%)
Santorum 35.0% (both low, I gain 1.1%)
Gingrich 8.0% (both way too high, Nate gains 0.4%)
Paul 9.3% (both too low but we agreed, so no gain for either)
None of the Above 1.0% (I hit it exactly and gain 0.5%
Silver 88.8% Hubbard 88.0% (I lead 7-6 in the first 13 match-ups)

The big story in terms of the polling data is how far the opinion polls misjudged Gingrich's performance.  Every poll had him beating Ron Paul comfortably and getting about 12% to 15% of the vote. Instead he finishes a truly pathetic fourth place.  If Gingrich had a lick of pride, he'd quit now. More than his bad showing, he's had a hard time raising money.  Remember that the Super PACs can buy TV ads, but they can't put gas in the planes or buses or pay the staff.

Later this week, I'll have a post about the margin of error, more correctly called the confidence interval, and how tough it is to get it right in a four person race.  Some companies do better than others, but mathematically they are supposed to be getting it right 95% of the time and it isn't even close.

The next contest is a Saturday primary in Louisiana, another proportional primary.  Polling so far has been sparse, but if there are two more polls reported between now and Saturday, and I expect PPP and Rasmussen will both be on the case, I'll be back with a prediction.

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