Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Results of Super Tuesday:
Predictions in Ohio, Georgia and Tennessee.

The final numbers are in for all ten races from last night, but there were only three states where there was enough data for both my model and Nate Silver's to predict the results candidate by candidate.  Without further ado, here are the numbers.


Romney 38.0% (both low, Silver gains 1.1%)
Santorum 37.1% (both low, I gain 0.2%)
Paul 9.2% (both high, Silver gains 1.2%)
Gingrich 14.6% (both high, Silver gains 0.4%)
NOTA 1.1% (I'm low, Nate's high, he gains 0.5%)
Final: Silver 91.6%, Hubbard 88.6%

Romney 28.1% (both high, I gain 1.1%)
Santorum 37.2% (both low, I gain 2.4%)
Paul 9.0% (I'm low, Silver's high, Silver 0.4% closer)
Gingrich 23.9% (I'm low, Silver's high, I'm 0.5% closer)
NOTA 1.7% (I'm high, Silver's low, I gain 0.5%)
Final: Hubbard 91.8%, Silver 87.4%

Romney 25.9% (both low, Silver gains 1.0%)
Santorum 19.6% (both low, I gain 0.3%)
Paul 6.6% (both high, I gain 0.7%)
Gingrich 47.2% (both low, I gain 0.6%)
NOTA 0.7% (both high, Silver gains 0.8%) 
Final: Silver 94.8%, Hubbard 94.6%

Long story short: His model whipped mine but good in Ohio, mine whipped his in Tennessee and he beats me by the narrowest possible margin in Georgia.  (The tenths place is always even, because any tenth of a percent a prediction is too high for one candidate must be balanced by a tenth of a percent low someplace else.)  This brings the overall prediction battle record to five wins and five losses for each, a flat-footed tie.

No day from now on is going to have ten contests again and I don't know how avid the polling companies will be about covering the next contests. There are four contests this Saturday and four more next Tuesday and so far I have seen zero polls concerning any of them.  There might be some polling in Mississippi and Alabama, possibly in Kansas - though it's a Saturday caucus, which is kind of a double whammy - but I don't expect much data from the far-flung contests in Guam, Northern Marianas, Virgin Islands, American Samoa or even in Hawaii.

I will let you know the next time both Nate and I put up predictions head to head.

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