This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Thursday, March 8, 2012

So how is the election really going, Matty Boy?

Well, hypothetical question asker, here's the long and short of it. 

Mitt R-Money will be the Republican nominee on the first ballot, barring some stunning disaster.

After Super Tuesday, pundits were saying it wasn't impressive and he can't seal the deal because he didn't run the board.

That's just silly.

So far in essentially a four person race since things really started to matter, R-Money has garnered 40.5% of the popular vote and much more importantly, 55% of the delegates. He needs about 700 of 1500 remaining delegates to get the nomination, way less than half. Sick Rantorum would have to get on a massive hot streak and win 1,000 of the remaining delegates to pull out the upset, which means two out of every three from now on.

Ain't gonna happen.

And Cheerful Old Newt and Dr. Ron Paul have a combined chance of... wait, let me check the numbers... epsilon to win.

For non-mathematicians, epsilon means a number ridiculously close to zero that can't be said to be exactly zero.  All they need is toe tags, because both of them are dead meat.

Ron Paul doesn't quit because this is a crusade for him, not an election.

(photo by Vincent Yu/AP)

Newt doesn't quit beacuse of this odd looking grease weasel, billionaire casino owner Sheldon Adelson. Maybe it's just because I've grown up online reading Princess Sparkle Pony, but being a billionaire should mean getting better skin and hair care than this.

Adelson is Newt's Super PAC sugar daddy, so getting ads on the air is no problem. But R-Money has a Super PAC, too, and those ads effectively killed Cheerful Old Newt's chances of bouncing back. (Some observers say the moon base was Newt's true undoing, and that is certainly a major contributing factor.) For whatever reason, Adelson has taken a disliking to Sick Rantorum and promises to throw his support behind R-Money once Cheerful Old is out of the picture. In other words, instead of a knockout punch, the R-Money campaign is more like a boa constrictor, slowly squeezing the air out of its victims.

When it comes to the general election, this primary season hasn't been much help to R-Money's chances, but without a third party right wing candidate I think Mitt has a chance, though not even money at present. For exact numerical stuff, this is way too far away from November to give numbers that have any meaning at all.  Heck, I'm not confident about the predicting the primaries next Tuesday yet. But checking all the background information, from Gallup tracking down to Rush Limbaugh's woes - he has been a serious foe of Mitt's candidacy - R-Money is the Republican standard bearer whether they like him or not. Right now, he has to prove he's a better candidate than Michael Dukakis, let alone President Obama.

It's going to be a long year and I don't just mean 366 days.



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