Sunday, March 25, 2012

Results from Louisiana

When I saw the relative positions of my numbers and Nate Silver's in Louisiana, I had a good feeling for the first time since the primary season started. We were tied exactly on Rick Santorum, we were just a tick apart on both Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, but I was 0.8% on the low side of the Newt Gingrich number and 0.8% to the high side when measuring None of the Above.  Gingrich has been underperforming recently - there's really no chance of him winning and this isn't a crusade for him like it is for Ron Paul - and Buddy Roemer's name on the ballot seemed a good guarantee that None of the Above would be closer to 2% instead of 1%.

My good feeling was correct and my algorithm beat Nate Silver's handily, which gives me a record of 8 wins and 6 losses in 14 contests where we both put up predictions.  Here are the numbers.

Santorum 49.0% (we both were low by plenty, but no gain for either)
Romney 29.5%  (both of us high, I gain 0.1%)
Gingrich 15.9% (both of us high, I gain 0.8%
Paul 6.1%(both of us high, I lose 0.1%)
None of the Above 2.3%(both low, I gain 0.8%)

Hubbard 89.4%, Silver 87.8%

No primaries this Tuesday, but April 3 has winner take all contests in Wisconsin, Maryland and Washington D.C. When it comes to the delegate count, Romney is way ahead with 55% of the allotted delegates so far, with Santorum a distant second with 25%. Mitt has garnered about 40% of the vote so far, a very respectable plurality in four way race. With wise use of his huge advantage in money and organization, he has won eight contests where he got all the delegates, Florida, Arizona, Massachusetts, Idaho, Guam, Northern Marianas, American Samoa and Puerto Rico. Though we are barely short of the halfway point in delegates, Romney's nomination is a statistical lock right now. If Santorum can't break his streak in the winner take all races, there will be little reason to continue.

Of course, there has been very little reason in this race for a very long time.  It's a certainty Ron Paul is in until the bitter end.  We'll see if Santorum and Gingrich also have the stomach for enduring defeat after defeat.

For exciting horse races, you are best served by following the Hubbard vs. Silver match.  Though I currently hold and 8-6 lead, that could vanish if the numbers go bad for me a week from Tuesday.

Stay tuned.

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