This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Crystal ball on hold: No predictions for today's Republican primaries

Now that Rick Santorum has dropped out, no one is polling in states that have Republican primaries anymore. The only way I could see that changing is if Newt Gingrich or Ron Paul massively out-perform expectations in some race and that is unlikely.  The GOP voters may not be in love with Mitt Romney completely, but the distaste for Gingrich is very strong and Paul has shown no ability to expand his base.

What this means is my prediction system and Nate Silver's had sixteen contests and the final score is 10 wins and 6 losses for me. There may be some early elections where are systems can match up before November, but now the general election is the next big test, which is a long way away.


No comments: