Monday, July 2, 2012

Sunday numbers 2012, Vol. 3a: End of June numbers for the electoral college

Another month has come and gone and we get another set of Sunday Numbers for public consumption.  I do the math every Sunday, but I think the information this far out from the election doesn't warrant weekly updates. If we go with the Spock Interest System from the original Star Trek, we are currently at Interesting, but will upgrade to Fascinating after Labor Day.

Here is where we are at the end of June. Many states do not have any fresh polling data still, but those are states that are considered very solidly Republican or Democratic based on 2008 numbers

Solidly Republican: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, SC, SD, UT, WV, WY, OK, TX, ND, NE, AZ, GA MT
Total: 159

Solidly Democratic: NM, ME, MD, MI, WA, CT, MA, NY, NJ, CA, DC, DE, HI, IL, RI, VT
Total: 194

Leaning Republican:
TN 98%
VA 96%
MO 95%
IN 94%
WI 75.9%
NC 75.9%

NH 50%

Leaning Democratic:
MI 61.2%
IA 63.7%
OH 86.3% (gold)
CO 91.8%
NV 92.2%
FL 93.3%
OR 98.6%
PA 99%

The word (gold) is next to Ohio this time around. This means if Obama can win every state easier than Ohio and Ohio, he will be president for a second term. On the other hand, If Romney wins Ohio and every state easier, he will get the nod.

As you can see, since it's easier for Obama to win Ohio than it is for Mitt - or at least that's what the polls say right now - Obama has a big percentage lead. With the 32,768 possible outcomes considered and weighed, Obama ends up ahead in 92.9% of the simulations, while Romney is the victor in 7.1% of the outcomes.

The middle of the month looked good for Romney in terms of trend, but that trend went backwards over the past two weeks. We haven't had many state polls since the health care decision came down, so it will have to see how that changes the balance.  If you believe the Gallup presidential tracking, it was a big win for Obama. If you believe Rasmussen, it started out well for Obama but has since turned against him.

The current median result is 295 to 243. One state that could make a difference is Florida. In June there were four polls taken and Obama was given the lead in three of the four, only trailing in one taken by Purple Strategies, a polling company whose track record I don't know.

The next update will be published at the end of July.

No comments: