Sunday, July 29, 2012

Sunday numbers 2012, Vol. 4a: Electoral college count for late July

It's the last weekend of yet another month and I'm putting up another post about how the election looks based on the most recent polls. Right now, I'm using an Excel page to do my calculations. If I can get the C compiler on my machine to produce an .exe file that creates text files, I will have a better and more flexible system. Here is the situation at as of the end of July.

 Solidly Republican: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, SC, SD, UT, WV, WY, OK, TX, ND, NE, AZ, GA, MO, MT, TN
Total: 180

Solidly Democratic: NM, ME, MD, WA, CT, MA, NY, CA, DC, DE, HI, IL, RI, VT
Total: 170

Leaning Republican:
IN 94%
NC 59%

Leaning Democratic:
VA 59%
CO 60%
FL 62%
WI 75%
NH 82%
NV 88%
MI 92%
PA 93%
MN 94%
IA 96%
NJ 97%
OR 99%
Another month goes by and neither Obama or Romney changes the landscape by much. As things currently stand, this is good news for the Obama campaign.  I will discuss the tracking polls on August 1, both the Rasmussen and Gallup versions.  It takes a lot of hard work to produce them, and that work is as useless as the math that goes into a complete horoscope or biorhythm. Rasmussen thinks Romney is slightly ahead, Gallup gives the slight nod to Obama.  This is the worst handicapping done in public since 1985, when oddsmakers thought the 49ers and Dolphins were just about evenly matched. In reality, the 49ers were the better team by far, a top notch offense and defense and a state of the art coaching staff against a good but exploitable offense and a second rate defense a better than average coaching staff. Since the game was played at Stanford Stadium, it was effectively a home game for the Niners, who won 38-16.

By my calculations, if the election were held today, Obama would have about a 95.5% chance to win a second term.

The current median electoral vote result is Obama 309, Romney 229. Since it takes 270 to win outright, Obama has a comfortable 39 EV cushion. No single contested state where Obama leads has 39 electoral votes, so Romney needs to steal a couple states.  That's hard work.

The state that has the Golden Spike is Ohio. That means if Obama can win Ohio and every state currently easier than Ohio, he would surpass 270 electoral votes, and likewise if Romney can win Ohio and every state easier than that for him, he'll get 270.  Ohio is currently at 78% Confidence of Victory for Obama.

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