Sunday, July 29, 2012

Sunday Numbers 2012, Vol. 4b: The Senate races

My current assumptions regarding the Senate.

1. Maine Independent Angus King won't announce whether he will caucus with the Republicans or Democrats until after the election. Current numbers make him a stone cold lock. 

2. Given this situation, the Dems really need 51 seats and will have some leverage at 50. (The insanely easy filibuster rules and the current lack of consequences to filibustering popular laws like not screwing over people paying back student loans are not helping our republic one teeny tiny bit.)

Given those assumptions, the Democrats have a 42.6% chance of retaining the Senate lead regardless of the whims of Angus King and a 77.5% of having a caucus of at least 50.  I expect these numbers to change dramatically over the next few months.

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