Monday, July 2, 2012
Sunday numbers, Vol. 3b: End of June numbers for the Senate races
If the Republicans are looking for good news in the current polling data, they need look no further that the Senate races. My data method gives them an advantage they do not completely deserve, which is the assumption that independent Angus King in Maine will caucus with the Republicans if he wins, and he is currently a prohibitive favorite to do so. the numbers at the bottom give the number of senators in the Democratic caucus, and the most likely result is 49 Dems to 50 Repubs and Angus King as the wild card. These numbers do not yet reflect Indiana polling, where longtime senator Richard Lugar lost in the primary against a Tea Party backed candidate. We will see if the newcomer remains a favorite the way Lugar would have.
Next update at the end of July.