This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
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Sunday, August 19, 2012

Sunday numbers 2012, 6a:
Week 1 of Romney-Ryan

We are now a week into know the tickets on both sides. As expected Romney-Ryan got a bump up. It will take another week to tell us if it's a trend or a bounce. Here are this week's probabilities for each state and Washington D.C., along with what changed from last week. Every state is given a probability of at least 50%, where the number given represents the probability for the party favored in that race.

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 AZ 11 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 LA 8 MS 6 OK 7 SC 9 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
EV total = 129
===

Leaning Republican.
IN 11 0.9998
ND 3 0.9995
NE 5 0.9995
GA 16 0.9978
MT 3 0.9820
TN 11 0.9804
SD 3 0.9285
NC 15 0.8772
IA 6 0.6814
MO 10 0.6012 down from .9905
FL 29 0.5992 was Leaning Democratic

EV total = 112

===
Coin flips.
OH 18 .5000 was Leaning Democratic 
EV total = 18

===
Leaning Democratic.
VA 13 0.6777 GOLD
NH 4 0.7659 down from .8147
CO 9 0.7747 was Coin Flip
NV 6 0.8747
WI 10 0.8948 down from .9898
PA 20 0.9170 was Solidly Democratic
MN 10 0.9362
MI 16 0.9560 up from .9397
NJ 14 0.9736
OR 7 0.9858
CT 7 0.9893
WA 12 0.9937
EV total = 128

===
Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 ME 4 NM 5 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3
EV total = 151


While there were improvements for both the Republicans and the Democrats, the overall change brings the median electoral vote count for Obama-Biden down to 295, down from 311 last week. As it stands, there is no one state outside the Solidly Democratic group that the Republicans can grab to get over 270.


As you might expect, the probability for victory has also gone down for the Democratic ticket, from a very comfortable 98.0% as of last Sunday to a less comfortable but still comfortable 88.2%.

We are still two weeks away from Labor Day, when an unprecedented amount of cash gets poured into the political races.  I'll be back next Sunday to see what the situation is just before the deluge.

Stay tuned.


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