Sunday, August 26, 2012

Sunday numbers, 8/26, part a: Week two of Romney-Ryan

At the beginning of this week, the momentum towards Romney-Ryan continued as it did in the first week, but by midweek the polls started showing gains for Obama-Biden. Overall, the Republican ticket gained slightly but not nearly as much as they did in the first week. (From the Republican point of view in math, we would say the function gained but the first derivative shrunk, not unlike a plane coming in for a landing.)

Here is the state-by-state situation.

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 AZ 11 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 LA 8 MS 6 OK 7 SC 9 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
MT 3 was leaning Republican
EV total = 132

Leaning Republican.
IN 11    0.9998
GA 16    0.9978
ND 3    0.9995
NE 5    0.9995
TN 11    0.9804
MO 10    0.9656
NC 15    0.8772
SD 3    0.9285
IA 6    0.6814
FL 29    0.5992
EV total = 109

Coin flips.
VA 13    .5000 was Leaning Democratic
EV total = 13

Leaning Democratic.
NV 6    0.7307
WI 10    0.7594 GOLD
NH 4    0.7659
OH 18    0.8149 was toss-up
CO 9    0.8247
MN 10    0.9362
MI 16    0.9397
NJ 14    0.9736
PA 20    0.9756
OR 7    0.9858
WA 12    0.9937
CT 7    0.9893
NM 5    0.9996 was solidly Democratic
EV total = 138

Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 ME 4 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3
EV total = 146

The changes in favor of the Republicans in New Mexico and Montana are minor. The big gain for Romney-Ryan was changing Virginia to toss-up and the big loss was having Ohio go from toss-up to Leaning Democratic. Other numbers changed, but they did not change categories.

The long and short of this in terms of the median result is Obama's total in the electoral college shrunk from 295 to 293.  It takes 270 to win, so the Republicans are looking for 24 more electoral votes right now.  No one contested state gets them over that mark.

Because of movement of some small states towards the Democrats, the probability of victory increased ever so slightly from 88.2% last Sunday to 88.9% this weekend.  My program takes the 24 states currently at less than 99.99% Confidence of Victory for either party and throws them into a mix, producing two to the twenty fourth different outcomes, which is16,777,216 results to tally.  I've been programming in C a long time, and I'm still a little startled how lickety-split my computer can do all these calculations, about six seconds. I could never do this work by hand, and making an Excel program to do this would be a huge waste of resources.

This week is the Republican convention.  The networks have realized what a ratings dog these pageants are and have cut back their coverage markedly.  I expect a Republican surge from this week and a Democratic surge from their convention next week.  More than that, the real ad blitz will start after Labor Day.

Stay tuned.

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