Sunday, September 16, 2012

Sunday numbers 9/16, part a:
The electoral college

Last week saw the polls reflecting the bounce from the Republican convention. It may seem like an eternity now, but all the polls that were counted last Sunday were taken before Bill Clinton's speech at the Democratic convention.  In this week's,  all the movement from one category to another was in favor of the Obama-Biden ticket, and that movement was significant.

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 LA 8 MS 6 OK 7 SC 9 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
EV total = 118

Leaning Republican.
IN 11    0.9998
ND 3    0.9995
NE 5    0.9995
AZ 11    0.9981 was Solidly Republican
GA 16    0.9978
TN 11    0.9804
SD 3    0.9285
NC 15    0.9150
MT 3    0.9059
MO 10    0.7568
EV total = 88

No coin flips.

Leaning Democratic.
FL 29    0.6568
CO 9    0.6915
WI 10    0.7594
IA 6    0.7690
NV 6    0.8102
NH 4    0.9069 GOLD
VA 13    0.9478 was coin flip
OH 18    0.9516 was coin flip
MN 10    0.9806
OR 7    0.9858
MI 16    0.9886
CT 7    0.9969
PA 20    0.9980
NM 5    0.9996
EV total = 160

Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 ME 4 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3
NJ 14 was leaning Democratic
WA 12 was leaning Democratic
EV total = 172

The median result as of this evening is 319 electoral votes for Obama. As always, let me add that this is NOT a prediction of what will happen on election day in November, but a prediction of what would happen if the election were held today.

If the five weeks since the introduction of Paul Ryan, the GOP ticket has had three good weeks and two bad ones.  The problem is that they started out well behind, the good weeks have been modest and the bad ones severe.  We are two weeks into the ad onslaught and they haven't moved the needle for GOP ticket. There's still plenty of time, but right now Romney-Ryan has no traction.

If all this wasn't bad enough, the odds for victory have climbed to 99.6% for Obama, which says if the election was held today, Romney would be a 250-1 longshot. This is much worse than things were for John McCain at the same point in 2008, but Sarah Palin is very different from Paul Ryan. Her introduction was a much bigger shot in the arm and the eventual disappointment in her abilities much more pronounced than any reaction to Paul Ryan the electorate is likely to have.  It's very likely Romney will get more electoral votes than McCain did, but it will take some doing to bring Obama under 300 electoral votes, let alone under 270.

Next update a week from now. Stay tuned.


ken said...

Graphing advice, for what it's worth (and remember what you paid for it). Lose the points on the "needed to win" line. It's not like it changes from week to week.

Matthew Hubbard said...

You are right, it doesn't change, but I think it's worth keeping to show how far apart the two are, especially since the graph starts at 150 instead of 0.

ken said...

No, I didn't mean you should lose the line, just the points

Matthew Hubbard said...

Okay, got it, good idea. You'll see the change next week.

KarenZipdrive said...

Did you love how Bill Clinton paved the way for Hillary to run in 2016 by knocking one out of the park for Obama?
I love genuine political savvy.