Sunday, September 2, 2012

Sunday numbers, 9/2, part a:
The Electoral College

Yet another week has drifted by and the numbers as judged by my methods have made a change in the likely results of the Electoral College. After two fairly good weeks for Romney-Ryan, the week of their convention was a disaster, wiping out all the gains they made and even digging a bit of a hole from where they started. Here are the states and how they currently stand, using a combination of latest poll number when there are very few polls and the median polls when there have been at least two in the past week.

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 AZ 11 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 LA 8 MS 6 MT 3 OK 7 SC 9 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
EV total = 132

Leaning Republican.
IN 11 0.9998
ND 3 0.9995
NE 5 0.9995
GA 16 0.9978
TN 11 0.9804
MO 10 0.9656
SD 3 0.9285
NC 15 0.6118
EV total = 74
Coin flips.
VA 13 .5000
EV total = 13

Leaning Democratic.
WI 10 0.7594
NH 4 0.7659
IA 6 0.7690  was Leaning Republican
NV 6 0.8102
OH 18 0.8149
CO 9 0.8247  GOLD
MI 16 0.8570
FL 29 0.8610 was Leaning Republican
MN 10 0.9362
PA 20 0.9756
OR 7 0.9858
WA 12 0.9937
CT 7 0.9969
NM 5 0.9996
EV total = 159
Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 ME 4 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3
NJ 14  was Leaning Democratic
EV total = 160

Some states changed slightly but did not jump to a different category.  The three big moves were New Jersey going from Leaning to Solidly Democratic, and Iowa and Florida flipping for the Republican column to the Democratic column. As always, let me say that these results assume the election was held on the same day as the poll was taken.  There are still two months to go and an amount of money never before seen in going to be pumped into this election on both sides.

The median result right now is Obama getting 316 electoral votes and Romney getting 222. The Republican National Convention "bounce" has not yet been fully seen, nor has the "bounce" from the Democratic Convention, if any.  A lot of Americans are tuning out, realizing the conventions are pretty damn meaningless these days.

My program also tracks the probability of victory for each party given the current polling. Right now, Obama-Biden has about a 98.2% probability of victory according to the program I ran, taking into account two to the twenty third different combinations, which is 8,388,608 for all you "power of two" fans out there.

More numbers next Sunday. Stay tuned.

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