Sunday, September 23, 2012

Sunday Numbers, 9/23, part b:
The Senate numbers

Politics is personal. Whatever the positions of the two parties on the issues, it often comes down to the particular man or woman on the ballot for the particular office.  Many Republican Senatorial candidates are much better politicians than Mitt Romney. Many Democratic candidates are not as good at politics as Barack Obama.

But sometimes the guy at the top of the ticket opens his mouth and gets the whole party in trouble.

This was one of those weeks.

The median number of seats for the Dems is right now 53 before Angus King, the independent candidate in Maine who is still a prohibitive favorite, decides with whom he will caucus. Last week it was 51.

The odds of the Dems having at least 50 seats is 99.6%, up from 91.4% last week.

The glimmer of hope for the Republicans is that the Democrats do not appear to have any chance at present of getting a filibuster-proof 60 seat majority. What makes that glimmer a little dimmer is that the Republicans have abused the filibuster so much since Scott Brown was elected to take Teddy Kennedy's seat. There is a lot of talk of filibuster reform. Notably, it is up on Angus King's website, so even if he caucuses with the Republicans, he can't be counted to be in lock step.

The other conservative glimmer is the Republicans currently hold the House.  I have a way of predicting the House if there is enough data, but right now I have info on only 20 of 435 races, which isn't anywhere near close enough for a prediction.  I've seen a tweet from Nate Silver that he feels much the same way, so the House outcome is likely to be the great suspense of election night, barring some great tidal wave of data.

Stay tuned.

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