Sunday, September 23, 2012

Sunday numbers, 9/23, part a:
The electoral college

A quick recap for who might be coming here for the first time. I kept track of the race for quite a while, but decided the selection of Paul Ryan was a good time to start fresh.

Like shaking an Etch-A-Sketch, if you will.

The thing is, Romney/Ryan did not start on an even footing with Obama/Biden. Part was the advantage of incumbency, even in an awful economy, and part was the thing a lot of people are coming to grasp, regardless of ideology: Mitt Romney is not a good candidate.

In any case, Mitt had some good weeks, Mitt had some bad weeks. The problems were fourfold.
1) He was behind.
2) Time is finite.
3) His good weeks were modest gains.
4) His bad weeks were drastic drops.

Here's how things shook out this week.
Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 LA 8 MS 6 OK 7 SC 9 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
SD 3  was Leaning Republican
GA 16 was Leaning Republican
EV total = 137

Leaning Republican.
ND 3    0.9995
NE 4    0.9995
AZ 11    0.9968
TN 11    0.9806
MO 10    0.9627
IN 11    0.9504
MT 3    0.9059
EV total = 53

Coin flips.
N2 1    .5000 Never polled before, considered Leaning Republican
EV total = 1

Leaning Democratic.
NC 15    0.6311 was Leaning Republican
NH 4    0.6870
CO 9    0.6915
NV 6    0.7991
OH 18    0.8467
FL 29    0.8847 GOLD
VA 13    0.9436
WI 10    0.9450
IA 6    0.9603
MN 10    0.9806
OR 7    0.9870
MI 16    0.9878
PA 20    0.9918
NM 5    0.9996
EV total = 168

Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 CT 7 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 ME 4 NJ 14 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3 WA 12
EV total = 179

Some Democratic partisans might feel trepidation that the Dems need to win Florida to maintain the presidency. Note that the Republicans need North Carolina, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio AND Florida to pull off the victory and they currenly trail in all those places according to the median polling results. They also lost all those states in 2008

Simply put, last week was a bad week for Mitt, and last week the numbers were worse than any Romney/Ryan had seen. The median result has risen to 332 to 206.

Here's some worse news than that for Romney/Ryan.  The median result is not the most likely result. Because someone has FINALLY polled Nebraska district by district, the Omaha electoral vote looks like a toss-up, though Romney looks likely to win the rest of the state.  This means that the most likely results are in pairs one EV apart.

348 or 347 EV for Obama/Biden: 12.4%
333 or 332 EV for Obama/Biden:   9.7%
344 or 343 EV for Obama/Biden:   6.5%

If this were the Sunday before the election, I'd choose the top number as my prediction. But this is NOT a prediction because the election is too far away.  This is just saying what the polls look like right now.

Note: Obama beat McCain by even more than this because he took Indiana - where he now trails badly - and the red states took a few EV away from the blue states in the last census.

And now comes the probability of victory if the election were held today.

Obama: 99.92%
Romney: 0.08%

There appears to be a lesson in this week's numbers, though I admit I'm a mathematician and not a political scientist.

Shitting on 47% of the population is not a winning strategy, especially when many of them support you.


Tengrain said...

This was really interesting. Are you really looking district by district? Wow!



Matthew Hubbard said...

I'm only looking district by district where the polls give me that info, which is to say, only in the district that includes Omaha.