Sunday, September 30, 2012

Sunday numbers, 9/30, part b:
The Senate races

I call my system Confidence of Victory, but even I am not completely confident the good news for the Democrats is as good as it looks. Unlike the presidential races, the polling in the Senate is somewhat sparse and a new poll in a state where the most recent poll is eight days stale is treated as gospel.  A lot of Senate races have been announced by polling companies specifically designated as Democratic, and what's worse, these are polls with very little track record. (In contrast, PPP is a Democratic polling company, but they are as busy as beavers, and I have some idea of how much they skew leftward, which is to say not that badly.)

In any case, I publish these numbers. The median result for the Dems is 54 seats before Angus King, still the very likely winner in Maine, make his decision in which caucus he will sit. There is now a tiny chance of 58 in the Democratic caucus, but even King would not give them a filibuster proof majority under the current rules. The odds of at least 50 Democratic seats is now a comfortable 99.94%.

These numbers could change before the election and I certainly expect them to change some by next Sunday. Stay tuned.

No comments: