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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Sunday Numbers, 9/30, Part a:
The Electoral College

Let me put this nicely for fans of Romney-Ryan.

Umm... September is over? That's good because this month has sucked something fierce.

The bad news? Well, obviously... November is coming.

Here's the state-by-state probabilities as of this Sunday using my Confidence of Victory system.

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 GA 16 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 LA 8 MS 6 OK 7 SC 9 SD 3 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
EV total = 137

Leaning Republican.
IN 11    0.9998
NE 4    0.9995
MT 3    0.9905
TN 11    0.9806
ND 3    0.9991
MO 10    0.9589
AZ 11    0.8301
EV total = 53

Coin flips.
N2 1    .5000
EV total = 1

Leaning Democratic.
NV 6    0.7391
NC 15    0.7466
VA 13    0.7821
IA 6    0.8538
FL 29    0.8689
CO 9    0.8714
NM 5    0.9537 GOLD
NH 4    0.9596
PA 20    0.9669
WI 10    0.9806
OR 7    0.9870
OH 18    0.9880
MN 10    0.9922
MI 16    0.9971
EV total = 168

Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 CT 7 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 ME 4 NJ 14 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3 WA 12
EV total = 179

No contest changed from the Republican side to the Democratic side, or even changed for Solid to Leaning.  All the changes were in the leaning categories, and the most important were Democratic leaning states leaning more Democratic. Ohio is now farther out of reach than Pennsylvania, and Pennsylvania already looked nearly a lock if the election were held today.

Unlike McCain-Palin, Romney Ryan has NEVER been in a flat-footed tie with Obama-Biden. Sarah Palin was a real sugar rush for the Republicans. Paul Ryan... not so much.

The median result is now 336-202. That's 4 electoral votes worse than last week.  Even worse, the most likely results, all landslide victories for the Democrats, got more likely still.

348 or 347 EV for Obama/Biden: 18.5% (was 12.4%)
341 or 342 EV for Obama/Biden:  10.4% (not a top choice last week)

The real problem is 47%. Romney was behind when that tape was released, and since then he has lost ground when there didn't even didn't look to be ground to be lost. The chance for an Obama victory last week was 99.9%. This week it would round to 100% (if the election were held today, never forget that) if I only rounded to a tenth of a percent, so I round to a hundredth of a percent and get 99.97%

Let me repeat. These numbers do NOT predict the result on November 6. Nate Silver says he can do that and that's one of the reasons I look down my nose at him. Polls are NEVER meant to predict the future.  That said, when late October rolls around and every state's early voting procedure kicks in, it may become too late for Romney-Ryan to turn this around.

Back next Sunday with newer data. Stay tuned.

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