Sunday, September 9, 2012

Sunday numbers 9/9, part b:
The Senate races

For several weeks, the trend has been good for the Republicans in terms of the Senate races. For the first time in a month, the trend moved slightly in Democratic favor. The numbers for this week are given by the thick purple curve, slightly farther to the right hand side of the picture, which means better for the Democrats. The median number of likely seats in the Democratic caucus is still only 50, which means Angus King of Maine, nominally an independent and not yet decided as to which caucus he will join, could be very important. The good news for the Democrats is that the odds of getting 50 or more seats is now at 71.6%, up from 54.2% last week.  This is due in large part because the odds of 51 Democrats is now more that the odds of 49 Democrats.

I'm going to be presenting the numbers as several curves, with the most recent curve much bolder than the others and the last two curves have the check marks at each data point.  Let me know if the graphic is clear or not in the comments.

More numbers next week, the first week after both conventions and the start of the serious media buys brought to us by the Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court.

Stay tuned.


Abu Scooter said...

I'd change the gray curve to green, but otherwise, it looks fine.

My suspicion all along is that, with R-Money having such trouble, Citizens United would be felt much more at the state and local levels. We'll see how that turns out.

Matty Boy said...

The gray curve used to be the bluest, since it was the best news for the Dems. Gray will now mean the data is old and will be remove the next week.