Sunday, September 9, 2012

Sunday Numbers 9/9, part a:
The Electoral College

The electoral college polls this week were taken almost entirely before Bill Clinton's speech on Wednesday, so any movement should be seen as the bounce from the Republican convention.  The movement was all to the good for the Romney-Ryan ticket, with Ohio going into the toss-up column and New Jersey bouncing from solidly Democratic to leaning Democratic. To be fair, the New Jersey change was not much, but in my system the Confidence of Victory has to be over 99.99% to be counted as solid, and New Jersey fell to 99.71% chance of an Obama victory if the election were held today.

With further ado, this week's list with changes noted. (Both changes were pro-Romney.)

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 AZ 11 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 LA 8 MS 6 MT 3 OK 7 SC 9 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
EV total = 132

Leaning Republican.
IN 11    0.9998
ND 3    0.9995
NE 5    0.9995
GA 16    0.9978
MO 10    0.9656
TN 11    0.9804
SD 3    0.9285
NC 15    0.7708
EV total = 74

Coin flips.
OH 18    .5000 was leaning Democratic
VA 13    .5000
EV total = 31

Leaning Democratic.
FL 29    0.6568
WI 10    0.7594 GOLD
NH 4    0.7659
IA 6    0.7690
NV 6    0.8102
CO 9    0.8350
MI 16    0.8570
MN 10    0.9362
PA 20    0.9756
OR 7    0.9858
WA 12    0.9937
CT 7    0.9969
NJ 14    0.9971 was solidly Democratic
NM 5    0.9996
EV total = 155

Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 ME 4 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3
EV total = 146

While the movement early in the week was in the Republican direction, the median electoral college result right now is Obama 301, Romney 237.  The GOLD label shows the easiest path to victory, so right now Romney would need to win all the states where he is favored, the current toss-up states Ohio and Virginia, and then both Florida and Wisconsin, states where Obama currently is favored.

Winning all those battles would be hard as the numbers stand right now, and it shows in the current probability using the Confidence of Victory numbers. My computer program chugged through two to the twenty fourth power possible outcomes - a tidy little 16,777,216 variations - and gives Obama a 91.0% chance of being re-elected if the election were held today.

While I have serious qualms about the usefulness of national tracking polls - you'll recall Gore won the popular vote in 2000 - it is worth noting that since Clinton's speech all three of the daily trackers have been trending towards the Democratic side in a big way. Gallup marks Obama's lead at 5%, while Rasmussen and Reuters/Ipsos give him a 4% lead.  We will see if these numbers translate to a good week in the electoral college count for the Democratic ticket when I publish the new numbers next Sunday.

Stay tuned.

1 comment:

KarenZipdrive said...

Math always makes me throw up a little in my mouth.