Sunday, October 14, 2012

Sunday Numbers, 10/14, part a:
The electoral college

Romney-Ryan makes gains again this week to their strongest position yet, but they still trail. here are the numbers.

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 MS 6 OK 7 SC 9 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
ND 3 was Leaning Republican
LA 8 was Leaning Republican
EV total = 121

Leaning Republican.
IN 11    0.9998
NE 4    0.9995
MT 3    0.9991
SD 3    0.9988 was Solidly Republican
GA 16    0.9861 was Solidly Republican
TN 11    0.9806
AZ 11    0.9490
MO 10    0.8704
NC 15    0.7460
FL 29    0.6918 was leaning Democratic
VA 13    0.6670 was leaning Democratic
CO 9    0.5098
EV total = 135

Coin flips.
NH 4    .5000 was Leaning Democratic
N2 1    .5000
EV total = 5

Leaning Democratic.
OH 18    0.6155 GOLD
NV 6    0.6415
IA 6    0.6760
WI 10    0.8133
PA 20    0.8304
MI 16    0.9445
OR 7    0.9870
NM 5    0.9958
NJ 14    0.9978 was Solidly Democratic
ME 4    0.9988 was Solidly Democratic
MN 10    0.9992
EV total = 116

Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 CT 7 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3 WA 12
EV total = 161

And now for the first time, one more switch of a single state can put Romney in the lead and that state is Ohio.

The Confidence of Victory number is now only 76.3% for Obama, the lowest it has ever been on a Sunday.

Since the race became tighter, I started to keep track of numbers day by day and post them on Twitter - follow @ConfidenceOfVic by clicking on the button at the upper right - and on Facebook on the Confidence of Victory page. The best days for Romney were just after the first debate and over the past few days things have been picking up for Obama-Biden. The next debate could be crucial.

As you can see, this Friday was the best day for Romney-Ryan, but since the vice presidential debate the numbers have been moving slowly in the other direction.

The other thing besides the fact that Romney still trails is how precarious is current easiest path is.  Right now, if he can win all the states where he is favored, all he needs to do is win the toss-up New Hampshire and Ohio where he only trails slightly.  The problem with this scenario is that gets him exactly over the goal line, either 269 without the Omaha electoral vote or 270 with it. If any state slips away, like New Hampshire or Colorado or Virginia, winning becomes much more difficult.

I will start posting the electoral college stuff daily here. The Senate races are much more stable right now, so I'll just post those on Sundays.

Stay tuned.

1 comment:

namastenancy said...

What scares me is how tight the race is. If Romney wins and with the disciplined Republican right wing marching in goose step, we are facing disaster. OK - just my opinion.