This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Sunday Numbers, 10/7, part a:
The Electoral College

As you might expect, this was a good week for Romney-Ryan.  Here's just how good.

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 GA 16 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 MS 6 OK 7 SC 9 SD 3 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
EV total = 129

===
Leaning Republican.
IN 11    0.9998
NE 4    0.9995
ND 3    0.9991
LA 8    0.9980 was Solidly Republican
MT 3    0.9905
AZ 11    0.9874
TN 11    0.9806
MO 10    0.8704
NC 15    0.8171 was Leaning Democratic
CO 9    0.7604 was Leaning Democratic
EV total = 85

===
Coin flips.
N2 1    .5000
EV total = 1

===
Leaning Democratic.
FL 29    0.5729
OH 18    0.5889
NV 6    0.6265
VA 13    0.7941 GOLD
IA 6    0.9223
PA 20    0.9669
WI 10    0.9856
OR 7    0.9870
NH 4    0.9885
MN 10    0.9922
NM 5    0.9952
MI 16    0.9971
EV total = 144

===
Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 CT 7 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 ME 4 NJ 14 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3 WA 12
EV total = 179


The brightest news for the Republicans is getting Colorado and North Carolina to switch from the Democratic side to the Republican. Their fondest hope is the trend continues and Florida and Ohio move over as well. But to get their first lead this year, they also need to dislodge two states like Nevada and Virginia or a big prize like Pennsylvania.  There's no telling yet whether the debate advantage was a bounce or a surge just yet, and more debates are coming, as well as other news stories that could capture the public imagination.

The median result now is 305-233 for Obama-Biden.  Because Omaha's electoral vote is still considered a flat-out coin flip based on only one poll mid-September, the most likely results come in pairs one electoral vote apart.

323 or 324: 8.0%
304 or 305: 6.5%
294 or 295: 6.5%


If the election were held today, it would still be a steep uphill climb for Romney-Ryan, but another good week like this coupled with an ability not to slip backwards could make a race of this yet.

More polls next week. Stay tuned.

No comments: