This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Monday, October 29, 2012

Sunday numbers one day late, Oct. 29: Part a
The Electoral College


I sometimes forget I am a blogger first and post a lot info to my Facebook page.  For this last week until the election, this will be my main post and the Facebook and Twitter feeds will be links to this.

Here's the electoral college situation, through all the swing states and some that really aren't.


Florida======
Most recent poll: October 28
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 8
Obama leads: 3
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 4
Confidence of victory: 55.6% for Romney

North Carolina============
Most recent poll: October 26
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 6
Obama leads: 2
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 3
Confidence of victory: 54.5% Romney 


Virginia============
Most recent poll: October 26
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 9
Obama leads: 3
Tie: 3
Romney leads: 3
Confidence of victory: 50% for both Romney and Obama


Colorado=======
Most recent poll: October 28
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 5
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 60.0% Obama

Ohio====
Most recent poll: October 28
Number of polls within one week of most recent:12
Obama leads: 8
Tie: 3
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 69.4% Obama
Note: This is currently the state with The Golden Spike. If Obama wins Ohio and every state that has a better Confidence of Victory for him, he wins. The same is true for Romney.

 

New Hampshire=============
Most recent poll: October 28
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 5
Obama leads: 4
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 76.9%
Note: The two companies on Romney's side of the median are Rasmussen and PPP, the two workhorses

Nevada
======
Most recent poll: October 25
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 5
Obama leads: 5
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 83.7% Obama

Pennsylvania======
Most recent poll: October 25
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 6
Obama leads: 6
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 87.0% Obama


Here's the color coding.
Red means likely Republican
Purple means toss-up
Light blue means likely Democratic
Light blue with gold background means likely Democratic and the state with the Golden Spike. Both sides need this state for sure
Dark blue means very likely Democratic and not a swing state under my system

The current Confidence of Victory for Obama is 90.5%, down from yesterday's 91.2%. There has been some movement from day to day, but since Obama hit 92% on October 18, the movement has been minimal.

What makes this really bad for Romeny/Ryan is that every day that passes is another day lost.The cannot afford to be so far behind day after day.

The big problem mathematically is not winning Ohio, but winning Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and Ohio. If they lose just one of those, New Hampshire won't help/

Unless some poll shows Romney ahead in Nevada or Pennsylvania in the last week, I have a very hard time believing either of those can really switch sides.



And then there's the median result, 299 to 239.  The most likely result is 291 to 247.  I wish I had more recent information about the Omaha electoral vote, which was dead even the last time anyone reported. Since recent polls say all of Nebraska has swung closer to Romney, I assume Romney also leads now in Omaha, though I can't be sure.

Next update tomorrow, one until next Monday and plenty of post mortem after.

Say tuned.

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