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Monday, October 22, 2012

The Sunday numbers, 10/21, Part a:
The Electoral College


I am now tracking the numbers day by day for the Electoral College, but the changes I mark are from Sunday to Sunday.

Solidly Republican.
AK 3 AL 9 AR 6 ID 4 KS 6 KY 8 LA 8 MS 6 ND 3 OK 7 SC 9 TX 38 UT 6 WV 5 WY 3
EV total = 121

===
Leaning Republican.
NE 4    0.9995
SD 3    0.9988
IN 11    0.9988
MT 3    0.9940
GA 16    0.9875
TN 11    0.9794
AZ 11    0.9777
MO 10    0.9753
NC 15    0.7493
FL 29    0.5996
VA 13    0.5992
EV total = 126

===
Coin flips.
NH 4    .5000
N2 1    .5000
EV total = 5

===
Leaning Democratic.
OH 18    0.6095 GOLD
WI 10    0.7592
CO 9    0.7625 was leaning Republican
IA 6    0.7943
NV 6    0.8345
PA 20    0.9479
OR 7    0.9617
MI 16    0.9721
MN 10    0.9882
NM 5    0.9958
WA 12    0.9959 was Solidly Democratic
ME 4    0.9988
CT 7    0.9996 was Solidly Democratic
NJ 14    0.9998
EV total = 144

===
Solidly Democratic.
CA 55 DC 3 DE 3 HI 4 IL 20 MA 11 MD 10 NY 29 RI 4 VT 3
EV total = 142



The biggest move of the week was in Obama's favor, with Colorado switching sides. With that, The median result electoral college result edges up from 285-253 to 293-245. This means that the easiest path for victory for Romney needs both New Hampshire and Ohio.


The general daily trend has been upward for Obama since October 12 with a single day that moved in Romney's favor, which was this Saturday.  If the election were held today, Obama has a Confidence of Victory number of 87.2%.

This election is completely different from 2008, when mid-October showed Obama ahead of McCain 347 to 171.

This is more like 2004, though Obama's position is a little stronger than Bush's was. I no longer have a link to the data I put up that year, but Kerry and Bush traded off being the favorite and being the underdog. As of October 21, Romney has not been the favorite yet.

Stay tuned.


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