This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Tuesday numbers, 10/30, the final showdown:
The electoral college

Okay. Like yesterday, it's really about five states, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio and Colorado.

The difference today is they changed order.  This difference is trouble for Romney.

Florida
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Most recent poll: October 29
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 8
Obama leads: 3
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 4
Confidence of victory: 55.7% for Romney
 

North Carolina
============
Most recent poll: October 26
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 6
Obama leads: 2
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 3
Confidence of victory: 54.5% Romney
 

Virginia
============
Most recent poll: October 29
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 2
Tie: 2
Romney leads: 3
Confidence of victory: 50% for both Romney and Obama
 

Ohio
====
Most recent poll: October 29
Number of polls within one week of most recent:12
Obama leads: 10
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 74.2% Obama
 

Colorado
=======
Most recent poll: October 29
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 6
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 75.7% Obama
Note: This is currently the state with The Golden Spike. If Obama wins Colorado and every state that has a better Confidence of Victory for him, he wins. The same is true for Romney.

Just like yesterday, Obama can lose Ohio and go home president if he wins Colorado. The difference is the odds of Colorado jumped from about 60%-40% to 75%-25%.

 I don't watch any cable TV news, so I have to hear about the alleged controversies secondhand. Joe Scarborough, who is still a conservative though he talks a lot of smack about most of them, thinks Nate Silver must be insane because he thinks Obama is still favored when "everyone he knows" on the left is in a panic.

I don't say yet what will happen seven days from now, though Silver does.  He thinks he can use mathematical modeling to do this. Personally, I think mathematical modeling works great for some problems in physics, most of computer science and a few cute examples in biology.

Otherwise, I just leave it be.

If the election were held today, the median result is 301-237 Obama. Romney would need to pick up 31 electoral votes, and the only state where he trails that has that many is California.

I'll go out on a limb and sat Romney AIN'T winning California.

If any Republican reading this wants worse news, the most likely result if the election were held today is the most likely result right now is either 319 or 320 electoral votes for Obama, depending on the single electoral vote produced by Omaha.

  
Obama gains in the Confidence of Victory to 92.2% to 8.8% if the election were held today.  No poll is completed on election day, so the last week of polls goes from today to next Monday. These are the polls I'm going to grade on their closeness to the true result.

When it comes to grading, I'm firm but fair.

New update tomorrow. Stay tuned.

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