This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Saturday, November 3, 2012

Friday numbers, 11/2, the final countdown:
The electoral college

My usual caveats about not celebrating early still apply, but with all the early voting in states across the country, it's not all that early anymore.  Here are the states that are most closely contested according to recent polls.

Red means leaning toward Romney. 
Blue means leaning toward Obama.
Gold background indicates the state that both sides need to cross the 270 vote threshold.

North Carolina
============

Most recent poll: October 31
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 2
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 4
Confidence of victory: 58.3% Romney
No change from yesterday

 

Florida
======
 

Most recent poll: November 1
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 12
Obama leads: 6
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 5
Confidence of victory: 52.3% for Obama
Slight improvement for Romney

 

Colorado
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Most recent poll: November 1
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 10
Obama leads: 8
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 2
Confidence of victory: 62.6% Obama
No change from yesterday


New Hampshire
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Most recent poll: November 1
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 5
Obama leads: 4
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 74.2%
No change from yesterday


Virginia
============

Most recent poll: November 2
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 9
Obama leads: 5
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 74.8% for Obama
Big improvement for Obama

 

Iowa
====

Most recent poll: November 1
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 8
Obama leads: 7
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 75.9%
An improvement of 6% for Romney


Ohio
====

Most recent poll: November 1
Number of polls within one week of most recent:15
Obama leads: 13
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 76.1% Obama
Slight improvement from 74.9 yesterday
Note: This is currently the state with The Golden Spike. If Obama wins here and every state that has a better Confidence of Victory for him, he wins. The same is true for Romney.
 


The big change today is Iowa moving from the approximately 80%-20% range to the 75%-25% range and into the states easier for Romney than Ohio. What this means is if Romney sweeps all seven races, he will have 285 electoral votes. This is a lot of leeway, so he doesn't have to sweep all of these to win. Given that the House is likely to stay in Republican hands, a 269-269 tie will go Republican. 


The median result ticks down slightly to 304-234 in favor of Obama. The most likely result is at about 303-235.

As the polls close across the country, the first battleground states appear to be Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and New Hampshire. For Romney, losing Florida would be a devastating blow.  The other trouble combinations would be losing any two of the other three.  Should any of those combos take place, Ohio alone won't be enough.

I'll be live tweeting the results Tuesday night, which means it will show up on my Facebook page as well.


As can happen, the median result ticked down but the Confidence of Victory ticked up, from 93.7% to 94.2% for Obama. It is absolutely better to be ahead than behind at this late date, but it is not a mortal lock. By this time in 2008, Obama's CoV was over 99.9% and STILL I told people not to celebrate early. I've played enough Texas Hold 'Em to have lost on the last turn on the card multiple times, even when I had 43 good cards to my opponent's 1.  

It's not over and you can still make a difference. Make sure you vote and if you have the time, do what you can to get out the vote. If you have a phone, you can help get out the vote in the battleground states even if you live in a solid red or blue state.

The next update on Saturday evening. Stay tuned.


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