This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Sunday, November 4, 2012

Saturday Numbers, 11/3, the final countdown:
The electoral college

It's just a couple more days, I promise.

Then again, about a week from now after all the post-mortem is done, I'm going to need to find another hobby.

The state in red is favored to be won by Romney.
The states in blue are favored to be won by Obama.
The state with the gold background is the Golden Spike. If either candidate wins that state and all the states that the system says are easier for the candidate to win, that candidate becomes president.


North Carolina
============

 Most recent poll: October 31
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 2
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 4
Confidence of victory: 58.3% Romney
No change from yesterday


Florida
======
 

Most recent poll: November 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 12
Obama leads: 6
Tie: 2
Romney leads: 4
Confidence of victory: 52.1% for Obama
Slight improvement for Romney from 52.3%

Colorado
=======

 Most recent poll: November 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 9
Obama leads: 7
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 2
Confidence of victory: 64.0% Obama
Slight improvement for Obama

New Hampshire
=============

 Most recent poll: Nov. 1
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 6
Obama leads: 5
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 73.5%
Slight improvement for Romney

Virginia
============
 

Most recent poll: November 2
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 8
Obama leads: 5
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 2
Confidence of victory: 74.8% for Obama

Iowa
====
 

Most recent poll: November 2
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 10
Obama leads: 9
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 79.2%
4% move for Obama

Ohio
====
 

Most recent poll: Nov 2
Number of polls within one week of most recent:13
Obama leads: 11
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 80.5% Obama
Big gain for Obama
Note: This is currently the state with The Golden Spike. If Obama wins here and every state that has a better Confidence of Victory for him, he wins. The same is true for Romney.




Nevada
======

 Most recent poll: October 31
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 7
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 89.1% Obama

 

Pennsylvania
======

 Most recent poll: November 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 2
Obama leads: 2
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 91.4% Obama

Michigan
============

 Most recent poll: November 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 4
Obama leads: 4
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 93.7% for Obama
 


Before any votes are cast, both candidates need Ohio.  As the east coast polls close and states are declared for the candidates, the Golden Spike can move. Romney can win without some of the states on the list before Ohio because he has a 16 vote cushion if he takes them all. But if he loses more than 16 votes in the Eastern time zone, and the most likely way to do that right now is Obama winning New Hampshire and Virginia, then the Golden Spike moves into territory even more solid for Obama than Ohio currently is.

Here are the earliest things that can happen on Tuesday night that can make Obama supporters breathe easier.

Least likely: Obama wins North Carolina.
Next least likely: Obama wins Florida. He has a very slim lead by my system's reckoning and it is not hyperbole to say Florida has a history of very shaky election results.
Most likely: Obama wins both New Hampshire and Virginia.  The odds of winning both together are just over 50%, very close to the odds of Obama winning Florida.  If I had money to put on any of these things, I'd bet the NH-VA daily double before I'd bet Florida for Obama.


In the spirit of being fair and balanced, here is the earliest thing that can happen on Tuesday night that can make Romney supporters breathe easier.

Romney wins Pennsylvania. It's not very likely and it doesn't guarantee victory in the electoral college, but it is within the realm of possibility, so as a mathematician I feel compelled to bring it up.

Now here are the pictures.  If you support the Democrats, you might well call them The Pretty Pictures.

You might well call them that. I couldn't possibly comment.

Gratuitous Francis Urquhart reference aside, my comment is not to be complacent. Vote and get out the vote. It's not over yet.

 The Confidence of Victory number edges up 95% for the first time since October 7.

I want to be clear as a person who used to gamble as a hobby that I have lost poker games and backgammon games where I was much better than a 95% favorite.  Then again, if someone gave the opportunity to be a 95% favorite or a 5% underdog, I would take the former position in a heartbeat, saying please and thank you like my momma taught me.


The median result climbs to 306 electoral votes. Here are the most likely current results.

303-235 Obama: 3.7% chance of this.  Easiest way for this to happen is Romney winning Florida and all the states where he is currently favored and Obama picking up all the rest.

332-208 Obama: 3.2% chance. Obama wins in Florida and all the other states where he is favored. 

My next update late Sunday night will include the Senate numbers.  I get e-mails from the Democrats saying they could easily lose the Senate. My system currently and emphatically says that's not likely. As for the House, I have no numbers I consider reliable enough on which to base a prediction. From what I've seen, the Democrats will likely pick up a few seats but taking back control would take a miracle.

Stay tuned.








1 comment:

susan s. said...

Love your gratuitous Francis Urquhart reference! You're my first blogger acquaintance that has actually used one! Loving your charts!