This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
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Monday, November 5, 2012

Sunday numbers, 11/4, the final countdown:
The Electoral College

It feels like I've been doing this for years, but this is the next to last update.  There will be a few more polls reported on Monday and then comes election day.  The picture is getting very clear. Let's first look at the states in play

As before, the colors red and blue mean Republican and Democratic leaning respectively, purple means a flat footed tie under my system and the state with the gold background is the state both side need to win in the simplest path, which I call The Golden Spike.

As states are declared for one candidate or another on Election Night, the Golden Spike can move.  I'll be live tweeting the updates under my Twitter name ConfidenceOfVic.

North Carolina
============

 Most recent poll: October 31
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 2
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 4
Confidence of victory: 58.3% Romney


Florida
======
 

Most recent poll: November 4
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 11
Obama leads: 5
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 5
Confidence of victory: 50.0% for both Obama and Romney
Improvement for Romney


Virginia
============

 Most recent poll: November 4
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 6
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 63.7%
Improvement for Romney

Colorado
=======

 Most recent poll: November 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 9
Obama leads: 7
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 2
Confidence of victory: 64.0% Obama

Iowa
====

 Most recent poll: November 2
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 9
Obama leads: 8
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 75.9%
Improvement for Romney

New Hampshire
=============
 

Most recent poll: Nov. 4
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 6
Obama leads: 5
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 76.6%
Slight improvement for Obama

Ohio
====

 Most recent poll: Nov 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent:14
Obama leads: 12
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 79.0% Obama
Note: This is currently the state with The Golden Spike. If Obama wins here and every state that has a better Confidence of Victory for him, he wins. The same is true for Romney.
Slight improvement for Romney

 

Pennsylvania
======

 Most recent poll: November 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 4
Obama leads: 3
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 83.1% Obama
Improvement for Romney

Wisconsin
============

 Most recent poll: November 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 9
Obama leads: 8
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 85.7% for Obama
Improvement for Romney

Nevada
======

 Most recent poll: October 31
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 7
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 0
Confidence of victory: 89.1% Obama

Michigan
============
 

Most recent poll: November 3
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 5
Obama leads: 4
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 93.0% for Obama 



The numbers improved slightly for Romney and the median result is now 303 electoral votes for Obama and 235 for Romney.  The median result is now the most likely result as well, which will happen if Romney wins all the states in which he is favored and the toss-up state Florida as well.

The numbers can't change all that much and that will very likely be the final answer I go with as my prediction when the last polls come in this Monday evening.



The Confidence of Victory number is now at 93.5% for an Obama win and 6.5% for a win for Romney. In comparison, Nate Silver has the number at 86% for Obama.

As someone who played a lot of backgammon back in the day, I know that 93.5% is not a lock. I played plenty of games where the final roll of a game came down to double sixes or double fives to win and the person who needed to get lucky did so.  The favorite in that position had 94.4% Confidence of Victory.

One last electoral college update Monday night.

Stay tuned. Go out and vote if you haven't done so already.

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