This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation.
When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Sunday numbers, 11/4, the final countdown:
The Senate Races


Here is an almost final snapshot of the Senate races. An Asterisk next to a race means a seat changing hands

Solidly Republican.
MS NE TN TX UT WY

===
Strongly Republican.
AZ    0.9526
NV    0.8425

==
Leaning Democratic.
MT    0.5898
ND *    0.5957
PA    0.6299
WI    0.6311
MA *    0.6789
VA    0.8309

==
Strongly Democratic
MO    0.8870
NM    0.9844
CT    0.9929
FL    0.9867
IN*    0.9616
OH    0.9893

 ==
Solidly Democratic.
CA DE HI MD MI MN NJ NY RI VT WA WV


The unmentioned state in this list is Maine, where independent Angus King looks solid to take a seat away from the Republicans with Olympia Snowe's retirement. If these races go according to form, the Democratic caucus could pick up three seats and possibly four if King decides to join them, which is likely but not yet set in stone.

I'll come back to this on Thursday to see how the Confidence of Victory numbers did in terms of prediction.

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