This blog is still alive, just in semi-hibernation. When I want to write something longer than a tweet about something other than math or sci-fi, here is where I'll write it.
Monday, November 5, 2012
Sunday numbers, 11/4, the final countdown: The Senate Races
Here is an almost final snapshot of the Senate races. An Asterisk next to a race means a seat changing hands
Solidly Republican. MSNE TN TX UT WY
=== Strongly Republican. AZ 0.9526 NV 0.8425
== Leaning Democratic. MT 0.5898 ND * 0.5957 PA 0.6299 WI 0.6311 MA * 0.6789 VA 0.8309
== Strongly Democratic MO 0.8870 NM 0.9844 CT 0.9929 FL 0.9867 IN* 0.9616 OH 0.9893 == Solidly Democratic. CA DE HI MD MI MN NJ NY RI VT WA WV
The unmentioned state in this list is Maine, where independent Angus King looks solid to take a seat away from the Republicans with Olympia Snowe's retirement. If these races go according to form, the Democratic caucus could pick up three seats and possibly four if King decides to join them, which is likely but not yet set in stone.
I'll come back to this on Thursday to see how the Confidence of Victory numbers did in terms of prediction.