Thursday, November 1, 2012

Thursday numbers, 11/1, the final countdown:
The electoral college

Another day goes by and I am surprised at the level of change today. 23 state polls concerning the electoral college are published, which is a high number but not unprecendented. The big change happens because of older polls timing out and most of the change is to Mitt Romney's disadvantage.  Here is the story of the six states currently in the middle. Mitt needs to win all of North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and at least one of New Hampshire and Colorado. If he fails this, there are some states currently very blue (Confidence of Victory numbers over 80% Democratic but under 90%) that could make up a deficit, but those are serious long shots.

Let's look at the six.  Red means the state leans Republican, blue means it leans Democratic and a gold background means this is the state with the Golden Spike.  If a candidate wins the Golden Spike state and every state that my system considers to be easier to win for that candidate, he will become president.

As of today, there are no toss-up states of consequence.  The single electoral vote in Omaha is a coin flip, but that is largely due to how little data I have been able to find concerning it.

North Carolina

Most recent poll: October 31
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 7
Obama leads: 2
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 4
Confidence of victory: 58.3% Romney

North Carolina gets much worse for Romney than it was yesterday. In the last two elections, all the states that went the opposite way from expected were in the 60%-40% range or closer.


Most recent poll: November 1
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 11
Obama leads: 6
Tie: 1
Romney leads: 4
Confidence of victory: 54.6% for Obama

Polls added and good polls for Romney timed out. Vital for Romney and moving the wrong direction. His winning this state by double digits - a big mouth claim of some Romney spokesman yesterday - would mean a result completely out of line with every poll taken since April. That's more than 70 polls.

Most recent poll: October 31
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 8
Obama leads: 7
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 62.6% Obama

The big move in Romney's favor. It didn't make a huge dent in terms of odds of victory because Romney could lose this and still win if he runs the table of NC, FL, VA, NH and OH.


 ============Most recent poll: November 1
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 8
Obama leads: 4
Tie: 2
Romney leads: 2
Confidence of victory: 64.6% for Obama

Old polls favoring Romney time out and Virginia trends big for Obama. Rasmussen will definitely have a say before Election Day, but who else will speak well for the Mittster?

New Hampshire

Most recent poll: October 29
Number of polls within one week of most recent: 5
Obama leads: 4
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 1
Confidence of victory: 74.2%

Note: A new poll added and old poll goes away.  Not completely crucial for Romney, like Colorado, but losing both is probably fatal.


Most recent poll: October 29
Number of polls within one week of most recent:14
Obama leads: 12
Tie: 0
Romney leads: 2
Confidence of victory: 74.9% Obama

Note: This is currently the state with The Golden Spike. If Obama wins here and every state that has a better Confidence of Victory for him, he wins. The same is true for Romney.

And now the aggregate numbers. The median electoral college result now stands at 305-233 for Obama. The most likely scenarios come is pairs because of the toss-up nature of Omaha right now, with a spike of 4.7% chance of 303 or 304 and another spike of 4.4% at 319 or 320.

The 305 median ties the highest value enjoyed by Obama since October 7 when I switched from weekly reporting to day by day updates.

 The Confidence of Victory number has risen to 93.7%, slightly lower than the numbers Obama was at on October 7 and 8 when his numbers first began to deteriorate.

As always, I insist on saying that these numbers would be valid only if the polling was done on the day the election was held, but in many ways, this close to Tuesday the election IS being held.  I turned in my mail-in ballot directly to the Registrar of Voters this week. Many people have taken advantage of early voting all over the country. Time is definitely running out.

There are counter-indicative data, notably some daily tracking polls that still give Romney a lead, but in no way are stat scrunchers like myself and Nate Silver are just voices in the wilderness as some of the numerically challenged members of the pundit class would have people believe. The gambling site Intrade has never considered Romney a favorite, and after a positive run up to being about a 45% underdog as of Nov. 24, the gambling community has given Mitt a strong vote of no confidence and his odds have sunk to about 33% chance to win.

One thing everyone can agree on is that it won't be over until Tuesday night at the very earliest.

More numbers tomorrow. Stay tuned.


nancy namaste said...

Thank you for being the voice of sanity.

Matthew Hubbard said...

I never said I was the voice of sanity. I'm just one of the guys crunching the numbers, and yeah, it is mostly guys. Right now, the numbers are staying relatively steady and in favor of the Dems, at least at the Presidential and Senate level.

I haven't done my homework on anything else.

Chris said...

Very cool. Found my way here from Prime. Glad to see you writing.

The Fold Blog

nancy namaste said...

Statistics, carefully explained, are sane compared to a lot of what's trying to pass as information.